CLEVELAND, Ohio – It’s that time of year where meditation prevails.
When I started diving into the NFL draft prospects in 2021 in February, the defensive end, Greg Rousseau, was in tune with Cleveland. He is tall, tall and with 15.5 pockets in Miami in Miami. He didn’t pick the 2020 season, but it didn’t look right.
Until his pro day last week.
Then reports began circulating of a stiff and less athletic Rousseau. He jumped 30 inches vertically, a half-inch shorter than quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick jumped on his pro-day. That puts him just in the 16th percentile for finishes. His 21 reps on the bench press were disappointing as Myles Garrett hit 33 pounds 33 times.
These numbers combined with just one season of true production put Rousseau stuck in the “I do not know when he will go” area. As of Tuesday night, he has a day 2 choice if he uses some popular cartoons. Others, such as Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Network, still believe Rousseau will play the first round.
Similar to my wide receiver story from last week, I mimicked 10 draft network sketches. This time with an eye for edge rushers at no. 26, 59, 89 and 91.
In the ten simulations, an average of two points went before number 26. Sometimes three were gone and twice only one (Miami’s Jaelan Phillips) went. Phillips and Michigan’s Kwity Paye were mostly unavailable to Cleveland. On average, ten finalists competed in the first 89 picks.
It offers little clarity about Rousseau, but we will visit him again later (my view on him is worth waiting for). But let’s start with an edge grid on which I get strong. Azeez Ojulari, Georgia, is a player to target Andrew Berry early on if the Browns pick a lead in the first round.
Round 1: Azeez Ojulari, Georgia, sophomore, 6 foot-3, 240 pounds
Georgia linebacker Azeez Ojulari (13) shows the power and speed teams they want from a lead.AP
In dissecting these prospects, every detail is important, even if it is not necessary. Ojulari weighs 240 pounds. Assume that a player is shorter and lighter than listed. With logic in mind, I crossed Ojulari off my big board. “Too small,” I think.
Wrong. The band never lies and what I see is not small. Instead, he is thick and tall. The play below emphasizes its stable and power-building base. Then his long arms (34.3 inches) help him keep his distance before jerking under the opposition.
Ojulari’s 40-yard finish (4.62 and 4.66) is 82nd percentile, while his impressive long-arms are 81st percentile for his bottom ideal height. More importantly, I am impressed with the way he portrays his qualities in on-site production.
He has one professional pass-rush move, but it’s excellent. He is already a ‘stab, hit and tear’ specialist. This means that he first creates (stings) contact. Then he slaps away any hands he feels, and tears through the remaining arms to get loose.
It is fast and effective. He combines it with excellent take-off speed and above-average running defense. If the Browns put him at no. 26 choose, they are longer Yannick Ngakoue.
Other prospects of the 1st round to watch: Jaelan Phillips, Jayson Oweh
Round 2: Gregory Rousseau, Miami, sophomore, 6-foot-7, 265 pounds
Gregory Rousseau has had a dynamic 2019 season, but is it sustainable at the next level? Getty Images
To be clear, I would be surprised if Rousseau falls out of the top 40. His raw size will convince a GM that he’s worth it. But I would not choose him. Rousseau must have fallen for his mocking concepts before his disappointing pro-day.
Because when I look at his band, I see Kevin Durant playing a defensive line. It’s dramatic, but I’m confident he’s too skinny to start an NFL week. I’m sure he can add weight, but he has not yet.
Then she dropped pro-day highlights and confirmed what I was thinking. He’s still long. But there is too much stiffness combined with limited athletic ability. See how he starts / stops. Where’s the explosion? He does not have it. His feet are flabby and he attacks too upright.
Rousseau would dominate inside a three-pointer. Watch enough tape and you will see Miami deploy him against slower guards and centers. He cleans up there, which means he will add a lot of value to an NFL series. But he should not be a day 1 choice.
Other prospects of the second round to look at: Ronnie Perkins, Joe Tryon
Round 3: Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forest, junior, 6 feet-3, 280 pounds
Basham Jr. can be selected anywhere between rounds 2 and 4. If he’s become top 50, it’s because he reminds a GM of Malik Jackson. He will be productive inside or out. The combination of size (second heaviest lead in the class) and first step makes him formidable on every down.
Falling out of the top 50 means few teams think he can excel in any field. Role players are not the second round. When I look at Basham, I see very above average. He races with a combination of movements. I trust him in a hand fight. He is technical and mixes chops with twist.
But I also do not see enough explosiveness. Can he blow up a play if it does not fit perfectly? I doubt it. The concept is about value. As a late Round 3 pick, Basham works.
Other prospects of the 3rd round to watch: Rashad Weaver, Jordan Smith
What we learned
Before the free agency, I thought the Browns would invest decent capital in defense. Berry hasn’t done it yet. Until Jadeveon signs Clowney elsewhere, he remains tied to Cleveland. No matter what happens to Clowney, the Browns can drop the advice on them.
With five backs and four receivers likely to be in the top ten to twelve picks, quality defensive points should fall. If things shake up in an unpredictable way, Ojulari, Payne or Phillips might be there.
Cleveland sits luxuriously compared to last year. Let everyone else think while Berry performs.
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