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The Chiefs, Bills and Steelers have already clinched playoff spots in the AFC. The other playoffs will feature four of five teams: The Titans, Colts, Browns, Ravens and Dolphins. And the Dolphins are the most likely team to be left out.
Based on Sunday’s Vegas lines, the Dolphins would be the team left out if all the favorite teams win. Here are the point distributions for the games relevant to the AFC playoff photo:
The Bills are 2-point favorites against the Dolphins.
The Ravens are 11.5-point favorites against the Bengals.
The Browns are 9.5-point favorites against the Steelers.
The Colts are 14-point favorites against the Jaguars.
The Titans are 7.5-point favorites against the Texans.
Sean McDermott, coach of the Bill, did not want to reveal whether he will play his beginners on Sunday. If the Bills play to win, the Dolphins will have to play a great game to beat the Bills, which will clinch a playoff spot. If the bills rest Josh Allen and other key players, it’s a big favor for the Dolphins – and a blow to the Colts and Titans, who will see their playoffs narrow.
The good news for the Dolphins is that they control their own path to the playoffs. The bad news is that the smart money is missing out on the Dolphins.