WASHINGTON (AP) – Los Angeles County conducted more than 350,000 coronavirus tests just five weeks ago, including on a massive driveway at Dodger Stadium, while health workers rushed to contain the worst COVID-19 hotspot in the U.S. .
Now, provincial officials say the test has almost collapsed. More than 180 government-backed sites operate at only a third of their capacity.
“It’s shocking how fast we’re moving from 100 kilometers per hour to about 25,” said Dr Clemens Hong, who leads the province’s test operation.
After a year of struggling to give a boost, communities across the country are seeing down demand, closing test sites or even shutting down supplies.
The decline in screening comes at an important moment in the outbreak: Experts are cautiously optimistic that COVID-19 is deteriorating after killing more than 500,000 people in the US, but are concerned that emerging variants could prolong the epidemic.
“Everyone is hopeful for quick, widespread vaccinations, but I do not think we are at a point where we can just wait,” Hong said. “We just do not have enough people who are immune to prevent a new upsurge.”
U.S. tests peaked on January 15, when the country averaged more than 2 million tests a day. Since then, the average number of daily tests has dropped by more than 28%. The drop mirrors have been declining in all major virus measures since January, including new cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
Officials say the encouraging trends, coupled with the harsh winter weather, the end of the holiday season, the exhaustion of the pandemic and an increasing focus on vaccinations, are reducing interest in the test.
“If you combine them all together, you see this decrease,” said dr. Richard Pescatore of the Delaware Department of Health said, where daily testing has dropped by more than 40% since the January peak. “People are just not going to go to the test sites.”
But tests remain important for detecting and limiting the outbreak.
LA County is opening up more testing options near public transportation, schools and offices to make it more convenient. And Santa Clara County officials are urging residents to “continue to test regularly,” emphasizing new mobile test buses and pop-up sites.
President Joe Biden has promised to revamp the country’s testing system by investing billions more in government supplies and coordination. But if demand falls rapidly, the country may soon have an abundance of untapped supplies. According to predictions from researchers at Arizona State University, the US will be able to do nearly 1 billion monthly tests by June. This is more than 25 times the current rate of about 40 million tests per month.
With more than 150 million new doses of vaccines due by the end of March, the test is likely to drop further as local governments shift staff and resources to give shots.
“You have to choose your battles here,” said Dr. Jeffrey Engel of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. “Everyone will agree that if you have one public health nurse, you are going to use the person for vaccination, not to test.”
Some experts believe that the country should double the test to avoid flare-ups of coronavirus variants that have taken hold in the UK, South Africa and elsewhere.
“We need to use testing to continue the downward trend,” says Dr. Jonathan Quick of the Rockefeller Foundation, which advises Biden officials. “We need to have it there to catch up on the variations.”
Last week, Minnesota began urging families to be tested every two weeks at the end of the school year as more students return to the classroom.
“To protect this progress, we need to use all the tools at our disposal,” said Dan Huff, an assistant health commissioner.
But some of the most outspoken test proponents are less concerned about the decline in selection. From a public health standpoint, testing is effective as it helps to quickly locate the infected, locate and isolate their contacts to stop the spread. In most parts of the US, this never happened.
During the holiday season, many Americans still had to wait days to receive test results, which made them largely useless. This has led to testing of fatigue and waning interest, said dr. Michael Mina of Harvard University said.
“It doesn’t really give you very gratifying, immediate feedback,” Mina said. “The people’s willingness or interest to be tested is therefore starting to decline.”
U.S. test makers continue to boost production, with another 110 million rapid and home-based tests expected to hit the market next month.
Government officials have long assumed that this growing arsenal of inexpensive 15-minute tests will be used to regularly screen millions of students and teachers as personal classes resume. But recent guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention do not emphasize the test, describing it as an ‘extra layer’ of protection, behind basic measures such as masking and social distance.
Even without strong federal support, education leaders say testing programs will be important in increasing public confidence needed to fully reopen schools, even in the fall when cases are expected to recur.
“Schools rightly asked themselves, ‘Is the juice worth making a big test effort?’ ‘, Says Mike Magee, CEO of Chiefs for Change, a non-profit organization that advises districts in more than 25 states. “Our message to the school systems we work with is, ‘Yes, you have to endure extensive testing, because you’re going to need it. ‘
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Associated Press writer Brian Melley in Los Angeles and AP journalist Nicky Forster in New York contributed to this report.
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Follow Matthew Perrone on Twitter: @AP_FDA author
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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Scientific Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.