Idaho Governor Brad Little received a dose of COVID-19 vaccine on January 25th. ‘I received the first dose of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine! I feel good and back in the office, working hard for the people of Idaho, “Little said in a tweet.
BOISE (Idaho statesman) – Rarely has the term ‘cautiously optimistic’ been more appropriate than when Idaho leaders spoke about the state’s coronavirus cases in 2021.
From local public health experts to the governor, the people responsible for the pandemic battle of Idaho’s COVID-19 see a light at the end of the tunnel.
All the COVID-19 numbers from Idaho look better than in months.
The daily falls for Idaho are a fraction of their fall peak – according to Department of Health and Welfare statistics, they fell from a high of 2,298 on December 9 to 314 on Friday. Hospitalizations of people with COVID-19 have stubbornly remained more than 140 people a day, but they have now been at levels that cannot be seen since the end of September. The same goes for people who need ICU care for coronavirus complications – about a third of the ICU surveys in Idaho in December.
“We are delighted,” Idaho Governor Brad Little said in an interview Friday.
“People just have to be careful,” he said. “Right now we are getting the vaccine in as many arms as possible.”
BUT WHY DO IDAHO’S CORONAVIRUS CASES FALL?
The statesman spoke to public health experts and Little about what they heard – and their theories on what would improve the situation in Idaho and across the country. They said it was probably a mixture of a few factors.
They also stressed that while it is worth celebrating, it is not an indication to throw away your mask and hang out in crowded pubs.
There are game maps in the future. Students and teachers return to personal classrooms with full classes. A public health council on Friday lifted the mask mandate for Ada County. (Boise’s mask mandate remains.) And this week, one of the most important variants of the coronavirus was confirmed in the Treasure Valley, while two other variants were found in the wastewater in the Boise area.
“People think we’re in the house – cases down, hospitalizations down, vaccines deployed,” says Coronavirus working group member Dr. David Pate said on Twitter. ‘They have no idea what’s going to come, and now our school board and (Central District Health’s board) are reinforcing these beliefs through their actions. I try to sound the alarm, but apparently no one is within earshot. ”
DO PEOPLE GET BETTER AT COVID-19 PROTOCOLS?
Idaho has seen two major increases from COVID-19. The worst kicked off in October and peaked in early December. Public health officials have begged people not to host large gatherings for the Christmas and New Year holidays because they fear the worst.
But a third boom never occurred. The opposite happened. Business has declined.
“Everyone from the CDC to almost all the experts did not get everything right because there are a myriad of things” involved in the pandemic, Little said. ‘One of them is, of course, behavior. “Part of it, we believe, is the awareness we did through ONE Idaho (COVID-19 prevention campaign), but we also think … over time (more Idahoans) knew someone who was really sick.” or who died of COVID-19.
Two public health experts think this may be part of the calculation that puts the Idaho case on a downward slope. But how many? They are not sure.
“We’ve been living with COVID for about a year now,” said Kimberly Link, manager of communicable diseases for Central District Health in Boise. There are more permanent changes in our interactions with each other, both in our homes and in public, which are safe practices. … Masking and physical distance have become part of the way we live, and this is going to affect the way the disease is transmitted. ”
Little said Idahoans sacrificed during the pandemic – they stayed home, postponed travel, did not visit loved ones, lost a business or their jobs due to the economic toll of COVID-19. Thousands of Idaho residents also lost loved ones to COVID-19.
People whose sacrifices have prevented more deaths and helped slow the spread of the virus are part of the reason we are where we are, with better control over outbreaks, Little said.
COVID-19 has hit Idaho in waves since the first case was announced on March 13, 2020. The fall caused the state’s worst boom, with hospitals and clinics across the country overwhelmed by sick staff and patients admitted to the hospital. New infections took a sharp turn in December. There was a much lighter-than-expected increase in the holiday season in January, followed by a steady decline.
LESS TEST = LESS CASES?
Dr Sky Blue, an epidemiologist and specialist in infectious diseases in the Treasure Valley, says some people have driven this theory. It does not hold.
A lower positivity rate means that the infection rate of a community is low enough to catch many of the infections by testing people. When cases rage out of control, the positivity rate rises – because there are so many people catching and spreading the virus, the health workers and laboratories doing the tests cannot keep up with the demand.
The percentage of Idaho COVID-19 tests now returning positive is about 5% – the upper limit recommended by the World Health Organization. Three months ago, Idaho’s positivity rate was nearly 20%.
“In essence, we’re getting to the point where the amount of testing done is adequate for the amount of disease in the community, because the amount of disease in the community has decreased,” Link said.
WHAT ABOUT FOREST STONE? DO THEY EARN CREDIT?
Yes, but it will take weeks or months before Idaho sees the full effect of vaccines to control the spread of the coronavirus.
Many public health experts consider vaccination to be the clearest path to something approaching a “herd immunity” against the COVID-19 virus.
People start building immunity to COVID-19 after their first dose of vaccination. But to get 90% or better protection, you need a second dose three or four weeks later (for the current vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer), plus a few weeks for the body to build up immune cells.
Idaho’s first vaccinated frontline health workers, residents of long-term care facilities and staff have only reached that point in recent weeks. As more people get vaccinated, the ‘herd’ will grow.
A recent decline in outbreaks at long-term care facilities in Idaho underscores the timing, Link said.
“This is one area where the vaccine has definitely had an impact,” she said. “If we see 70% to 80% of the population being vaccinated,” it could prevent defenseless Idahoans from becoming infected and dying in some cases.
More vaccines are on the way. The federal government is accelerating the deployment of vaccines, sending more vials to Idaho and to retail pharmacies, including Idaho Walmart and Albertsons.
These factors – plus the recovery of doses that put unused in a special federal program – gave Idaho a boost. The state chair of the Coronavirus Advisory Committee for the Vaccine for Vaccine Administration is 18th in the US for its administration.
Few are optimistic about vaccines. He said a hospital leader in Cascade vaccinated just 500 people in one day – a number equivalent to almost 5% of the country’s population.
CHANGES THE CORONAVIRUS?
Little said his health team has always told him, “Viruses do what viruses do, and that they change.”
These changes are a normal part of the evolution of a virus. It mutates while making copies of itself in a person’s body.
Some mutations can make the virus more contagious – as scientists believe has happened with some “variants of concern”, such as the B.1.1.7 variant first discovered in England.
Little said these variants are now under the world’s microscope, “but we think the existing coronavirus (which dominated in Idaho) might become less contagious,” he said.
IS IT SEASONAL? THE FLU COMES AND GOES, NO?
Can be. Maybe not.
“We’ve seen these waves or rises in disease happen,” Link said. “There is some kind of come and go, and what ultimately causes it is, I think, a bit speculated, but it is not uncommon.”
But epidemiologists doubt whether COVID-19 is relaxing because it goes out of season. This is because the other classic seasonal virus – flu – usually arrives in Idaho in the fall. And it usually reaches a climax now.
DID THE VIRUS CARRY OUT OF IDAHOANS TO INFECT?
The Magic Valley could be one case study for the cause of a virus.
Twin Falls had a huge boom in October. The regional hospital was so overwhelmed that it had to send patients to the Treasure Valley. It took weeks.
Local officials did not want to become active while the virus was spreading. They agreed on mask mandates.
And then, mid-November, something changed. Things fell apart. Hospital beds opened. The positivity rate has improved.
Was it because people heeded the call for personal responsibility, to put on masks and keep their distance?
“If you’ve ever been through Canyon County or Twin Falls, you know that’s not true,” Blue said.
What he and others suspect – and note that it’s all speculation – is a strange kind of isolated herd immunity.
“We have some people who have been so diligent with masking and isolation, that they are probably not exposed,” Blue said. The group chose from the herd itself.
“Then you have the others who would not wear a mask if their lives depended on it,” he said. The group is COVID-19’s free ticket for the herd.
In the past year, the groups have not mixed as before the pandemic, Blue said.
While the first group stays at home, the virus spreads through the second group. Most people in the second group recover with some immunity. Eventually, the virus took on new bodies to infect.
“So you can’t see that the takeoff has been going on for a while,” Blue said.
But those who are not yet infected cannot stay at home forever. And those who have recovered from COVID-19 will not be immune forever.
Idaho cannot achieve true ‘herd immunity’ without many more people dying and being hospitalized.
Therefore, Blue and others hope that Idahoans will take the vaccine.
Blue believes that the virus will become ‘endemic’, and like the flu will bounce forever. Vaccinations and immunity after infection are likely to make the disease less serious over time, he said.
CAN IDAHOANS RELAX NOW ABOUT COVID-19?
This question caused a few seconds of silence on the other side of the phone during the interviews.
While the council that controls her agency decided Friday to lift the Ada County mandate, Link said the importance of public health guidelines for wearing masks has not changed.
“Masking and physical distance, I really think these are going to be the things that are going to come above all,” she said. “These are the first things that came on board, and they should be the last time.”
If the virus starts spreading uncontrollably again, it could go from 500 cases in Ada County this week to 2,000 cases a week in March, she noted. This is what has happened in previous increases.
Her advice to everyone? Be careful.
“I think someone should always be a cornerstone when someone goes outside their home and has to spend time with people they don’t live with, mask and physical distance,” she said.