Nearly six months after the first Covid-19 vaccines were approved for emergency use, Guardian analysis shows that the vast majority of the world will not yet see a significant benefit.
Supply shortages, security concerns, public apathy and slow rollout have led most countries to continue to rely on heavy lock-in and other quarantine measures to reduce the severity of their outbreaks.
Clear gaps have arisen between the handful of countries where vaccination levels are high, the countries struggling to sharpen their programs and the many, mostly poor countries that have so far received only a drop of vaccine dose.
The mapping of changes in mortality rates since January 31 versus vaccination rates in each country gives a snapshot of the state of the race to vaccinate the world against the virus. That’s what it’s telling us.
Data
Data on vaccination figures are available from Our World in Data and show the total vaccinations in a given country for every 100 people. Countries that have not yet recorded vaccination figures are not included.
Mortality rates come from Johns Hopkins University. The change in deaths since 31 January is calculated by calculating the percentage change in deaths between the period from two weeks to 31 January and the two weeks to 19 April.
Countries that do not yet have a documented vaccination rate are excluded. Countries with more than a 1,000% increase and less than five deaths in the two weeks to 31 January were excluded, so that low baselines do not distort the international picture.
Exclusion data are from the Oxford Covid-19 Response Track. The change is calculated by comparing a country’s average strengths in February with its average strengths in April. A change of -10 or less was used to identify countries that have been significantly open over the past two months.