Welcome to Conference Championship Sunday! Our first showdown is one with two of the greatest backs of all time, with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers hosting Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There are, of course, other stars all over the field, from Davante Adams and Aaron Jones to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and from Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith to Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. There are even incredibly interesting matches along the offensive and defensive front, as this match also includes some of the best lineouts in the league.
It has to be a captivating game, so let’s break things down.
How to watch
Date: Sunday 24 January | Time: 15:05 ET
Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
TV: Jackals | Current: fuboTV (Try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports Program
When the Buccaneers have the ball
Let’s cut out a few sections from last week’s preview of Rams-Packers, which are just as relevant here:
Green Bay recorded a fairly solid 18th in DVOA Storm Defense this season, but a more worrying 23rd in Adjusted Line Yards, indicating that the Packers have often lost the battle in the trenches …
In their three defeats this season, the Packers surrendered 158, 173 and 140 rushing runs to opponents averaging 4.5, 5.1 and 3.8 yards per attempt. The Colts offered a comeback from the second half by running their field goals and sharpening their defense. Tampa’s early lead came through a pick-six and another interception returned to the 2-yard line, so it was only Minnesota that really came out and just ran the ball down Green Bay’s throat from the jump. But even the Vikings only took the lead in the third quarter and did not put things away until Dalvin Cook took a 50-yard screen pass to the home.
Can the Bucs jump to an early lead again this time, if they just run Leonard Fournette and / or Aaron Jones down the Packers’ throats? The Rams tried to do that with Cam Akers, but they fell behind because their defense allowed two touchdowns and a field goal on Green Bay’s first three drives of the game. They could keep Akers involved the rest of the way, but once you’re off with two counts, your whole offensive rhythm is thrown out of the arc.
The Bucs tried to run early and regularly against the Saints last week, and it didn’t really work out for them. Only when they switched to a more pass-centered attack did they start hanging skewed numbers on the scoreboard – but even that required a lot of help from the defense and set them up with short fields. Tom Brady did not really break things and threw only 199 yards on 33 attempts.
But the defense of the Green Bay Pass is not nearly as solid as that of the Saints. The Packers may have Jaire Alexander to shade Mike Evans and the combination of Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark up front, but there are more places to take advantage of Green Bay’s coverage than in New Orleans. If Alexander overshadows Evans, it puts Kevin King on Antonio Brown on the other side, and Chandon Sullivan on Chris Godwin in the lock. It looks like the most likely matches. Godwin on Sullivan would be a strong advantage for the Buccaneers, just like Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate against any of the lineouts that could make the Bucs win. (This is less clear when the Packers use their coverage.)
To reap any of these benefits, however, requires you to win the battle along the line. Tampa has one of the best pass-protective offensive lines in the NFL this season, which keeps the rush out of Brady’s face largely and can throw him out of a clean bag. If they give him time against this secondary Packers series, he will find openings. But if the Smiths and / or Gary start forcing Brady out of his place, and he has to buy time or recover himself after moving into the bag, this is where the Packers can have the advantage. Tampa can keep the passing rush in balance with a pass session, but the Packers will probably only be good if the Bucs decide to run rather than throw. They would rather be beaten by Fournette and Jones than by Brady, one would think.
If the Packers have the ball
The Buccaneers finish this season, just like last season, with one of the NFL’s best defenses. Tampa ranks sixth in the allowed yards, eighth in the allowed yards and fifth in defensive efficiency, according to DVOA of Football Outsiders. But like last year, the Bucs’ defensive success was based on their ability to stop the run: they have taken first place in DVOA’s defensive direction over the past two seasons. Therefore, it seems unlikely that it will be a match controlled by Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon – even if Alvin Kamara came loose on the ground several times last week.
However, due to the focus on flight, the Bucs could be hit by the air. In fact, they seemingly encourage opposing offenses to throw, based on their alignment. According to Pro Football Focus and Tru Media, on 59 percent of their defensive grips, the Buccaneers used at least seven defenders on the field, about 5 percent more than the average team in the league (54.2 percent). The same goes for the use of eight-man boxes: Tampa has so 31.6 percent of the time so aligned, compared to a league average of 25.5 percent.
The more defenders in the box, the more advantageous it is that the opponent succeeds instead of running. This is true against the Bucs, with opponents posting their best EPA per game rate against Tampa’s eight-man boxers via Tru Media.
Well, does the Bucs really want to play a defense that encourages the Packers to put the ball in the hands of Aaron Rodgers, rather than that of Jones, Williams and Dillon? I certainly would not do that. But that’s been Tampa’s philosophy for the best part of the past two years. They have succeeded in achieving success because they do such a great job of shutting down opponents’ games and pressure to get opposing backs. The Bucs have put pressure on the QB this season at 36.3 percent from the relegation, a rate that far exceeded the league average of 30.7 percent.
Can they increase the pressure on the Packers? This is usually easier said than done. Rodgers was the second fullback of the league this season, with riders in his face only 23.8 percent of the time. And it’s not as if he got rid of the ball too quickly for the rush to ever get there. His average time of 2.78 seconds to throw, per PFF, was about the league average of 2.76 seconds. He just got incredible pass protection. Of course, the best pass protector in the team left is David Bakhtiari, who is now out for the season after tearing his ACL. The Packers did well last week without him, but A. the strength of the Rams’ passion is on the inside, not on the edge; and B. Aaron Donald is injured and clearly not himself. This week could pose a bigger challenge for the guys up front, with Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, and more flying off the edge.
The Packers should also have significant advantages in the passing game. Davante Adams is almost undiscovered, as he showed last week against Jalen Ramsey. The Bucs use Carlton Davis or not to shadow him, but it seems unlikely it will matter. Adams will beat whoever Tampa puts in front of him. But Green Bay should also have advantages with Robert Tonyan in the middle (the Bucs are 25th in DVOA against throws to tighthead), as well as Jones and Williams from the backfield (only two teams allowed more passing than backs). With so many options for Rodgers, the Packers need to be able to move the ball.
The answer to this is, of course, that every word of this was also true when the Packers and Bucs played earlier this season, and the Bucs steamrolled their way to a 38-10 victory. However, a repetition seems somewhat unlikely. The Packers actually led that game 10-0 and apparently were a bit on the move, only for Rodgers to be selected in an unusual way by Sean Murphy-Bunting and then almost by Jamel Dean to be selected for the very next possession . He’s only going to throw three interceptions all year. The safe bet is that he takes care of the ball and carves things out.
Last chance:
Green Bay Packers -3.5
Prediction: Packers 27, Buccaneers 21