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What makes it difficult to know if the new SARS-CoV-2 variants are more contagious?
The co-author of the article working in the laboratory. @JoseMJG_, author provided that the variant of SARS-CoV-2 identified in Reino Unido (B.1.1.7)’s identification of a first virus in a virus transmitted to a patient on September 20, 2020, but in a first moment no genero ninguna sospecha. As of November, 26% of cases are established. In the week of December 9, 60% of patients follow up in London. Hoy is dominant in the country and is present in other 70. In the finals of 2020, the Red de Vigilancia Genómica de Sudáfrica identified the variant 501Y.V2. It appears that it can propagate better among the individuals in comparison with others, and in addition it will be able to evade in part the anticoagulations generated by an infection earlier in the carcass. It is present in more than 40 countries. In the year 2021, the first P.1 variant will be identified in Brazilian travelers traveling to Japan. These have mutations that, although they are associated with the identified in South Africa, can affect the capacity of the antiseptics generated, by natural infection or by the vaccination, to reconstruct and neutralize the virus. These data are preoccupying and we suspect that these variants can have a significant effect in the form in which the virus is infected, it increases its transmission, infectivity or exterminates our immune system. Without embarrassment, why is it only possible to suspect and do not clearly state whether these variants are dangerous or not? Why is it so late to say something that seems obvious? The answer is that it does not say because it does not know about rotundity. It is true that science is not always as fast as our taste buds, but it is important to note that the height of which can appear obvious does not mean that it is beautiful. Antes de afirmar algo, hay que close. Hasta now the only one who holds his epidemiological data where he compares the crime in the number of cases infected with each variant within a different population. Here are the titles that say that “the Reino Unido variant could be up to 70% more contagious”. However, even with these data we can very clearly state that some of these variants can transmit better, we can not conclude because only its estimates. These percentages can be discussed in other reasons. For example, superpropagation events or their variants simply create a larger pocket than the previous ones and by that they have clear form. An example of a superpropagation event could be an infected individual with a new variant that had a party or a concert given by us in contraception, simply had a large social life and had cases of recommendations. For another case, a mutation example that would like to be able to run the virus by default does not require that it transmit the tenure in mutation D614G. This European appearance in February 2020 and I will impress the rest of the world in a few months. Until now, there is evidence in the laboratory that viruses with this mutation can transmit better, but this is not entirely clear. Korber et al / Cell How do you explain how many cases there are? It is possible to detect that a virus creates more than others in cells, and thus it imposes its sequence. Without embarrassment, it does not always mean that it will increase its transmission. For this reason, although all indications are that these variants can be more transmissible than the previous ones, in order to be able to actually conclude that there are controlled experiments in the laboratory. This requires time and solves certain problems that appear. The way to study variants in the laboratory The first thing to do is to see the new variants in cellular cultivation in comparison with the previous ones. Without embarrassment, there is a major problem with the virus, in addition to mutating it when it infects people, even in the laboratory. Our laboratories require a tube with a few viruses. To be able to study, first you have to create cells you have to have enough time to do experiments. The problem is that when multiplication suelen acquires mutations in certain regions of its genome. In general, the part of the virus that has more to replicate in the laboratory is the protein S (the one that uses the virus to enter the cell) which is also the zone around which most of the variants have incorporated the most interesting mutations. . @microbioblog For now, it’s not easy to get rid of the virus and make experiments. First of all, cultivate in sufficient quantities and insure, in each case, that it maintains the original mutations and that, moreover, has not incorporated other new ones. Once the virus and virus have been shown to grow, it is necessary to perform experiments to study its transmission in comparison with other variants. For this we use animal models, as for example hurones. In these experiments the animals are infected and colloid in those with others without infection in order to be able to transmit them directly or not. In addition, other animals are slaughtered in order to evaluate the indirect transmission. Wikipedia Además, hooi tener que tener en cuenta that the effect of the distinct mutations can be much more likely to increase the transmission of the virus or its lethality. For example, a recent and very preliminary publication (pending revision by par) suggests that the infection for the variant identified in Reino Unido may take longer in comparison with the previous variants and, therefore, escape from the quarantines. According to this hypothesis, which will require more studies that corroboren o descarten, a solution can be extended during these periods. Missing time to experiment In summary, to actually conclude these new variants are their most contagious or not, having a certain number of laboratory experiments and solving certain problems that appear, which requires a certain time. Finally, it is important to note that, although there is no conclusive evidence that these new variants are more transmissible or lethal than the previous ones, it is clear that some have. Representan a real problem that hay that afrontar. For this reason, in cases such as these, given the suspicion of a mayor transmission is quite high, it is important to make decisions in a preventive manner and to reform the means to avoid male mayors. This article was originally published in The Conversation. Lea el original. The company persons without their employees, consultants, no actions, nor receive financing from any company and organization that can receive a benefit from this article, and he declared care of relevant relevant angles of the academic cargo quoted previously.