Joe Biden is on the roll. His approval rating is higher than his predecessor ever was. Nearly three-quarters of Americans think he is doing a good job with the COVID pandemic. Sixty percent approve of his handling of the economy.
So it’s time for him to start looking at what could go wrong and focus his attention beyond our borders. It is no coincidence that the one area where Biden’s backwardness is on our southern border, where his efforts to solve the problems that aggravated his predecessor, went from problem to problem, all magnified by the knowledge of desperate immigrants that Donald Trump is gone.
But this is not the only place where the world is going to knock, and as Biden’s predecessors know, the results are often problematic. Barack Obama was elected to take us out of George W. Bush’s wars and in his first year he discovered how difficult it would be and eventually increased our troop levels in Afghanistan (over the objections of his vice president). George Bush did well until September 11, 2001. Bill Clinton’s first foreign crisis also occurred in his first year in office with the Battle of Mogadishu and the infamous Black Hawk Down incident. George HW Bush’s first year in office saw both the uprising and carnage of Tiananmen Square and a wave of revolutions in the disintegrating satellite states of the Soviet Union that changed the geopolitical landscape.
It is a very different world today, but two situations involving Russia and China, still America’s main international competitors, point to the challenges facing Biden. Russia has intensified the deployment of troops and military resources on the Crimean peninsula and along the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent weeks. And China has stepped up its aggressive stance towards Taiwan and within the South and East China Seas, which is of deep concern to Asian and US military leaders.
Although a Russian invasion of Ukraine or a Chinese attack on Taiwan is considered the most likely consequence of their short-term sabotage, it does not make these situations any less risky. In both cases, it is because the interests of the US, our interests and allies are very high and that our effective options are limited. It must also be emphasized that in both cases the possibility of military action by our opponents is not zero.
In Ukraine, several recent diplomatic talks involving the Russians, Ukrainians, Germans, French and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in various combinations were unproductive. It is not surprising that the Russians said that their actions “should not affect anyone at all. Russia poses no threat to any country in the world. It is also not surprising that their words greeted their unbelief, given their history. Ukraine’s army is ready. Nerves are frayed.
As for Taiwan and disputed territory in the South and East China Seas, fears are based on years of increasingly accelerated build-up of Chinese capabilities. China’s fleet has expanded. Deployments and overflights in and disputed areas have increased. Chinese rhetoric ranged from unapologetic to straightforward confrontation. Last month, the top US commander in the region said during a Senate hearing that he expected the threat against Taiwan to come to an end within the next six years. But serious problems seem to come up much sooner. A few days ago, China announced that drilling of its transportation service near Taiwan would become a regular event, and the U.S. responded to the area for the second time this year with a visit from Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group.
Should Russia try to expand its control in Ukraine or China to intentionally or otherwise cause a conflict around Taiwan or disputed islands in the waters, the consequences would be a major crisis.
The Biden administration is actively involved on both fronts. The president spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky days ago. Days before, Foreign Minister Antony Blinken spoke to his Ukrainian counterpart, saying the US supported Ukraine “in light of Russia’s persistent aggression.” During a recent trip to Asia, the Secretary of State made it clear that the US would not stand for Chinese “coercion and aggression,” and raised Chinese brackets when referring to Taiwan as a country. In bilateral meetings, the US emphasized these points. Earlier this week, the US expressed solidarity with the Philippines in opposition to the challenging incursion of Chinese vessels into Philippine waters.
Russian Vladimir Putin and Chinese Xi Jinping are testing the Biden government at least to some extent to see how they will respond to these threats. So far, they have seen clarity and determined toughness. But the reality is that whatever our statements and stated policies may be, the US is unlikely to take direct military action to defend Ukraine or Taiwan. The potential risk of rapid escalation, huge losses and global conflict is just too high.
This means that the Biden team must tackle these crises before they get to that point. They must forge a united front with allies to show that the negative consequences for aggression will be great and that the US will not be isolated. They need to make it clear that there are red lines short due to actual aggression that will cause heavy sanctions. They need to emphasize that they will actively support to strengthen the defenses of all our allies in the region. They must increase military readiness in a way that sends a clear message. And most of all, they need to find diplomatic ways to defuse this tension.
If they fall short in any of these areas, even without war, this conflict can arise to become a major distraction, create tension among allies and / or be at home whether it is weak or ineffective. So far, Biden and his team have made the right move. They distinguished themselves especially from Trump by embracing their multilateralism and diplomacy, and at the same time amazed their people with the clarity and strength of their responses to the Chinese and the Russians.
But when it comes to foreign policy, the US does not have all the cards. An overwhelming Putin seeking support at home could use his well-known ploy to win a victory abroad in Russia. Attacks of the sea and air in the vicinity of China can easily cause accidental collisions and consequent escalation. China has also recently been more brutal in Hong Kong and its Northwest, suggesting that it is not much influenced by general public opinion.
These are not the only potential international risks that could complicate life for President Biden. North Korea remains a risk. Tensions in the Persian Gulf remain high. The likelihood of setbacks in Afghanistan if we call back our presence is also high. In addition, the COVID pandemic is raging around the world that could cause recession, tensions over vaccines, humanitarian crises and more.
History and current reality work together to provide a compelling reminder that if Joe Biden wants to build on his successes so far or maintain his momentum on his local agenda, he will need to be aware of the looming threats worldwide that are undone made even the most capable of its predecessors.