DENVER – Models for the coming snow show everything from a few centimeters to a few meters, but there are so many different predictions out there about the storm coming in, according to chief weather specialist Mike Nelson.
As of Tuesday night, the storm was about 1,000 kilometers away, and had just reached the west coast – it must cross the Sierra Nevada, the Wasatch and then the Rocky Mountains of Colorado before reaching the Eastern Plains and affecting Denver. territory.
A lot of things can change in a few days, but we know there are going to be big changes. We’re going to get some snow in the next 24 hours, and then comes the heavy snow for the weekend – and it could be one of the biggest snowstorms in years.
But predicting big storms is not easy.
We use computer models that are very complicated and used on a supercomputer. They simulate how storm systems are going to move across the United States and around the world.
That mathematical model takes different kinds of layers into the atmosphere and divides them into tiny little squares, and then tries to let it go from one period to the next and then to the next and the next.
This is one way we can figure out how the storms are going to move.
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Now to make it more interesting. There is not just one computer model. There are different models.
There is a global forecasting model, there is a European model working in both Europe and North America; the Canadian model, the North American model and each of these computer models have a different set of physics, different equations, different assumptions about how the atmosphere is going to move and change with time.
So, you paste the same data into four different models. Usually we do not get exactly the same production, so we come up with a variety of snowfall amounts for a given storm.
Here’s basically what the next few days are going to look like.
By the end of Wednesday we expect rain and snow showers over the West. It is windy and dry in the southeast by Thursday. As the storm begins to move across the Great Basin, moves across Nevada and eventually to Utah, the snow increases.
By the time we get to Friday, the low point is lower than the quadrilaterals. For people who have been watching the weather in Colorado for a long time, those four angles low are the most interesting for a big snowfall. This is because it will turn over southeastern Colorado, and draw a ton of moisture into the Gulf of Mexico and turn it on the higher terrain to the west – it’s a slope that revolves around the low pressure system. It focuses the heavy snow right next to the Front Range and the Continental Divide.
Again, this storm is still hundreds of miles away. As it moves closer and closer, we will be able to pin it better.
But it looks like the San Juans could see a foot or two of snow. Northeast Colorado can see up to a foot and rain over the southeast with very little, if any, snow. Further north and west it can see 6 to 12 centimeters.
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For the Denver Front Range area, some areas can store more than two feet of snow, especially just east of the Continental Gorge – parts of Clear Creek, Gilpin County, Boulder County and in Larimer County can see 48 inches of snow and locally, perhaps a little more.
March is our biggest snow month of the year, and this heavy rain of snow is ideal for our water supply. It will definitely be a hassle for Friday night, Saturday and Sunday, but we will take the moisture because we really need it with the drought conditions we had.