How close are we to herd immunity? The data is clear enough

More than half of the Texans, according to state data, either recovered from the coronavirus or were vaccinated as of Monday.

When about 75% of us have immunity, we will reach what is sometimes called ‘herd immunity’, when the virus can hardly spread, even if there are no safety measures such as physical distance and masks.

Herd immunity is a “calculated number based on the infectivity of a virus,” said Dr. Paul Klotman, president of Baylor College of Medicine, explains.

Herd immunity to the highly contagious measles virus, for example, is 95%. For regular COVID-19 it is closer to 65%.

The more contagious variants make the herd immunity to this pandemic about 75%, Klotman said.

“I think we’re getting closer,” he adds, pointing to local data.

More than half a million people in the Greater Houston area in nine counties have officially contracted COVID-19 as of Monday.

The true number is closer to 2.4 million, based on numerous “prevalence” studies, including a CDC study, which shows that for every positive COVID-19 there are several others uncounted.

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About 1.5 million people in the region have been completely vaccinated. Together, these are about 3.8 million people out of the 7.2 million who live in Greater Houston, or about 52%.

“There will be some overlap” in the numbers, Klotman said.

The data is approximate, but it also reflects the state’s data.

Out of 29 million Texas, nearly six million were fully vaccinated as of Monday and about 11 million contracted the virus (officially 2.5 million tested positive).

That is nearly 17 million Texans with an immunity or about 57%. If we recover or are vaccinated about 22 million, we have achieved ‘herd immunity’.

The number of Texans being vaccinated each week is increasing rapidly, and dr. Klotman said we are on track to reach the high level of immunity by the end of June.

“We get there,” said Dr. Klotman said. “About two months.”

Gov. Greg Abbott asked Fox News Sunday if he thinks Texas has achieved herd immunity:

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‘If you look at the senior population, for example, more than 70% of our elderly people got a vaccine shot. More than 50% of those 50-65 received a vaccine shot. ”

“I do not know what herd immunity is,” the governor added. “But if you add it to the people who have gained immunity, it seems like you can be very close to herd immunity.”