National overview
The coming global setback against China
The following is a custom excerpt from Helen Raleigh’s new book, Backlash: How China’s Aggression Has Backfired. The leader of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is the most powerful leader in communist China since Chairman Mao. Yet the outer stronghold of Xi is a veneer over his inner uncertainty. When he came to power at the end of 2012, China’s economy slowed from double-digit growth to single-digit growth; the working-age mass population, which was the driving force behind China’s economic growth, began to decline. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank in Washington, DC, projects that “China will complete its thinner workforce by 2030 by employing workers from abroad.” At the same time, according to Mark Haas, a political science professor at Duquesne University, “China will have more than 329 million people over the age of 65 by 2050.” Consequently, China is expected to become the first major economy to age before being prosperous. Without its demographic dividend and with an aging population, China’s economic growth will slow further at the moment the government has to maintain its growing means. class demands a level of political freedom commensurate with their newfound wealth. An aging population will also force the government to allocate more national resources for parental care and social services, meaning there will be fewer resources to compete against the US. This is probably one of the main reasons why Xi feels that he was given the so-called strategic patient guidance issued by Deng Xiaoping, the most important leader of China from 1978 to 1997, who instructed his comrades to give up their time and any confrontation with powerful external forces to avoid until China was in a much stronger position economically and militarily .Xi believes, however, that China can no longer afford it. It must replace the liberal world order with a Sino-centric world order before the Chinese population becomes too old and the Chinese economy becomes too stagnant. Instead of promoting economic reform and opening up more sectors to foreign investment and competition to strengthen its economy, Xi chose to hide China’s weaknesses and exaggerate China’s economic strengths. He emphasizes independence and the use of China’s resources to drive up ‘national champions’, or state-owned enterprises, who can compete against world leaders in strategic sectors. Xi feels that nationalism is his new trump card, something he can use to motivate, excite and unite a billion people while strengthening the CCP’s rule over them. Others say that China’s internal nationalist policies lead to a trap for middle-income earners – in which China’s level of development rises before it reaches the heights of other modern industrialized nations – which Xi and his predecessors have tried very hard to avoid. Xi the need to project a strongman image abroad and especially at home. As Wang Gungwu and Zheng Yongnian, two Chinese scholars, wrote in China and the New International Order, these dynamics have deep roots in Chinese history: “China’s internal order was so closely related to its international order that the one not long without the others could not survive. ; when the barbarians abroad were not submissive, rebels could more easily rise up within them. Most dynasties collapsed under the duel of disorder inside and outside disaster, to luan wai huang, i.e. domestic rebellion and foreign invasion. ‘Xi is well aware that he is vulnerable to internal rebellion. He purged more than 1.5 million government officials, military leaders and party elites. Its trade war with the US is deeply unpopular in China because it has caused economic pain, such as rising unemployment, factory closures and the shift of the global supply chain from China. Xi knows full well that if he shows any signs of weakness, he could end up like his political rival, Bo Xilai – a prince who is currently languishing in a notorious Chinese prison for high party officials. US President Obama as a ‘weak’ leader who led a nation on its way to inevitable decline, which opened up an unprecedented opportunity for China. Xi also has certain milestones he wants to achieve: In 2021, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, and in 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of Communist China. Xi wants to do something great to capture his place in history when he reaches these milestones. Therefore, the era of hiding and biting time is over in his mind. He wants to show the world a new set of policies, actions and attitudes that are in line with China’s powerful status. Xi succeeds for a while. Internally, he mercilessly attacked religious believers, political dissidents, party officials and business elites. He also built a state of mass surveillance that made the dystopian nightmare proposed by George Orwell in 1984 a reality. Internationally, he has imposed his strong will on businesses and countries large and small through his signature project “One Belt and One Road”. The more Xi sees it, the more other countries become economically dependent on China, the more he can peacefully dominate them without using force. One commenter remarked that Xi ‘looks like a clenched fist. At home, he holds on to his control. To the outside world, he is a hard force determined to get his way. Xi’s fist has conditioned many countries, including Western democracies, to believe that China is stronger than it actually is and that China’s global domination is inevitable. Therefore, few people are willing to challenge China’s human rights violations at home and its assertive behavior abroad, but even the most powerful emperor can fly too close to the sun. The divergent voices within China are getting louder and louder, while the global setback against China in 2019 reached new heights. Then the coronavirus outbreak in 2020 stripped the facade of Xi’s powerful image, revealed deep flaws in the dictatorial political system of the CCP, caused great anger and frustration among Chinese people, China’s coveted international image brought serious disadvantages and China’s seemingly unstoppable rise brought to a halt. As the leading Hong Kong entrepreneur Jimmy Lai wrote: “The more Mr. Xi pursues his authoritarian agenda, the more distrust he will sow at home and abroad. In addition to transforming Beijing into the world’s leading superpower, its policies will prevent China from taking its rightful place of honor in a peaceful, modern and integrated world. Xi misread the situation, overplayed his hand, and his aggressive policies at home and abroad declined, proving the proverb: Those who destroy the gods first drive them crazy.