CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (WDBJ / UVA release) – UVA researchers have concluded that herd immunity in Virginia ‘is not currently a possible way to end the COVID-19 pandemic.’ But they believe their finding underscores the importance of vaccines and say without them, herd immunity is so much further away.
The finding is based on a study in which blood tests for COVID-19 nationwide found that only 2% of Virginians had antibodies to the virus by mid-August 2020, a few months after the pandemic started and before vaccines became available.
Read the full study here.
About 2.8 times more virgins have antibodies than have been identified by the state’s PCR test, according to UVA researchers. The ratio is lower than many forecasts predict how many of the country’s population already have COVID-19 antibodies.
According to UVA, participants in Spanish had the highest exposure, with more than 10% antibodies. Other groups with a “significantly higher” rate include residents of Northern Virginia (4.4%), those between 40 and 49 (4.4%) and the uninsured (5.9%). The prevalence per zip code ranged from 0% to 20%. Researchers often say that adjacent zip codes have produced dramatically different results.
“We are closely monitoring the number of cases, but we must acknowledge that the number of cases is an underestimation of the true number of COVID infections,” said Eric Houpt, MD, Head of Infectious Diseases and International Health at UVA Health. “If we use this data to project to today, we will predict that as of February 2021, less than 20% of Virginians will still be exposed to the virus.”
COVID-19 test antibodies
To better understand how widespread COVID-19 was in Virginia, UVA Health and the Virginia Department of Health worked with major hospitals in the state. The researchers tested the blood of 4,675 outpatients at five health systems: UVA Health in the northwest, Inova Health System in the north, Sentara Healthcare in the east, Carilion Clinic in the southwest and Virginia Commonwealth University in the central area. Each site enrolled up to 1,000 residents, 18 years or older, who were not evaluated for potential COVID-19 infections. According to UVA, the participants matched the age, race and ethnicity of each region
Among the 101 participants found to have COVID-19 antibodies, 42 were Spanish. People with antibodies were more likely to live in multi-family units and confirmed upon contact with a patient that they had COVID-19, the researchers reported.
According to researchers, about 66% of infected infections were asymptomatic.
Previous COVID-19 studies have suggested that confirmed cases may represent only a small percentage of the people infected. Estimates of total unrecognizable infections ranged from six times the confirmed cases to 53 times, and Virginia’s results were lower in comparison, according to UVA.
“Virginians are still fairly susceptible to this virus,” Houpt said. ‘We need to keep wearing masks in public and doing social distance and hand washing. I encourage anyone who qualifies to get a COVID vaccine when they can. ‘
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