Despite a recent slump reported in some COVID-19 hospitalization methods, an Arizona State University expert warns that the state may not yet see the peak of this boom.
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As of Wednesday, the state’s coronavirus dashboard showed 4,663 COVID-19 inpatients in Arizona hospitals. This number has usually decreased since it peaked on January 11, with 5,082. ICU patients also saw a slight decrease during the same period.
“The numbers vary from day to day,” said Dr. Joshua LaBaer, executive director of ASU’s Biodesign Institute. “I will not read too much here and a little there. There will be daily fluctuations and I am not convinced that we really have a reliable decrease in the use of hospitalization yet.”
Dr. LaBaer said that their forecast models after the end of January or early February showed an important time for this boom.
“So far, the numbers have matched well with our model,” he said. “[It] predicted that I would not call it a peak somewhere in late January and early February, but I could call it the beginning of a plateau. ‘
With 11,528 COVID-19 deaths in Arizona, and the count, dr. LaBaer said it could surpass cancer and heart disease as the leading cause of death within a 12-month period. He said they account for about 12,000 deaths a year.
According to information from the Arizona Department of Health Services, heart disease was the leading cause of death in Arizona in 2017, accounting for 12,285 deaths.
“Please remember that although the vaccine has already hit thousands of arms, the number of vaccines that have gone out has no effect, and has no significant impact on the spread of virus,” said Dr. LaBaer said. “It will take many, many more vaccinations before we see a significant decrease in the spread of viruses.”
Dr. LaBaer also noted that the number of people seeking COVID-19 tests has decreased. He stressed the importance of getting people tested as much as possible.