Experts inside and leading the country have suggested that Nayib Bukele’s discourse of combating fiscal evasion and allowing it to guarantee a $ 1,300 million grant with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is not real, not enough. .
The economic and social situation of El Salvador is very critical and for the governing body to agree with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to obtain a prize of $ 1,300 million will not be enough to discourage tax evasion by imposing advised economists.
“I can assure you that the Fund will not make an agreement with El Salvador only with the idea of eliminating evasion; this is a super attractive discourse if possible, but it is simply not the case. We must establish comprehensive tax, gas and structure compromises in the public sector, ”advises Costa Rican economist Roberto Artavia, president of the INCAE Business School Board of Directors, in a recent television interview.
I added that “in an ideal world one would say that the idea of combating fiscal evasion is the happiest, because it means that we do not have to carry it. The IMF will never accept this: firstly, because of the horror of fiscal evasion due to the informal economy, due to the contraband, activities that are son ”.
Agreement with the International Monetary Fund can lead to an IVA increase
Artavia’s analysis surges that the governing body is in negotiations with the IMF since the finals of this year in order for the money to be paid, but it is known that an agreement with this body has rigid fiscal means, as well as IVA increment.
Although the Minister of Health, Alejandro Zelaya, said the governor’s strategy would be to combat fiscal evasion and not raise the IVA.
“The IVA is not going to be incremented, it is part of the estimates included in the agreement, which we are trying to do is lie against the tax evasion and the FMI is doing it as a fiscal medium for justice”, assured Zelaya March 17 this year.
The governor projects a tax recovery of the Valor Agregado (IVA) of $ 2,643.4 million, a figure that follows the analysis of the Salvadoran Foundation for the Economic and Social Development (Fusades) is impossible to log and have soberestimado.
Ante ello, economistas salvadoreños val saam met Artavia en que el Ejecutivo no podrá llegar a un acordo con el FMI con esa strategie.
“The governor did not say anything to combat the evasion of those who did not declare that he was not involved in combating the contraband and the evasion of taxes. I think that in one year he will collect 3 or 4 points of GDP, based on the methodology of pursuing what the pagan taxpayers will be, ”said economist Luis Membreño.
Also, the economist Rafael Lemus points out that the IMF has been able to convince the governor that it has been able to develop good practices or a fiscal adjustment, but to see the failure to suspend the agreement, in case of concreteness.
“And this is also what Doctor Artavia mentioned when he said that he could make sure that he did not agree with the Fund if all the government’s plan was to attack tax evasion; it is said that this is not possible, it is not consistent. The fiscal problem of El Salvador is much greater than that of Costa Rica in debt and imbalance, ”said Lemus.
While it is possible that the Powder Powder will pave the way for new taxes to be established, Lemus considers that the discussion will increase the number of guests.
El Fondo advertises that El Salvador’s tamaño is much bigger than Costa Rica and that in this country the Pidieron takes medrals of guests and guests, and with the governor of El Salvador will be equal, if not alcanza with the desire to persevere, ”said Artavia.
In its analysis, Artavia considers that if it is necessary to establish taxes in the country, it must have a well-thought-out structure and not only for subordinates.
“In El Salvador, relatively speaking, the imposing charge will be mayor, to say: taxes on wealth, not on production; impetus to contamination, not to inversion; impulses to capital, not to productive; and in this sense it is not necessary to increase taxes solely by increasing, we should focus on taxes that generate additional income without prejudice to the productive impulse, not the inversion that the country requires, ”said the costarricense expert.
The Economist and former Minister of Education, Manuel Enrique Hinds, says that the tax burden in El Salvador “is not bad”, but he advises that the negotiations with the IMF could be more for the transparency of the guests and reducers, than for elevators the imposing charge.
Pero Membreño signaled that “tampoco is willing to reduce goblins’ guests and, moreover, with the level of education that the country can not maintain this level of guests”.
Gobierno needs more than $ 2,000 million to pay plaza debt
About a pension reform
Another topic in which Artavia opines is in pensions and considers that in El Salvador it is necessary to work and make a further reform of pensions from a decade ago.
“The problem is that there are no sufficient contributors; no cotizan sufficient; and each of the pensioners will receive a lower percentage of the standard of living that he has ten, ”he said. It was added that while 70% of the population is in the information sector, “there are no sufficient funds to increase pensions”.
In the case of Artavia, the salvage pension system must be in solidarity. “If we have to give up more retaliatory measures, increase the contribution rate and create a practical situation in the informal economy, all of which are non-contributory and are based on a pyramid without a base.”
Aggregate that El Salvador has a double problem: the informal economy and the huge amount of young people he emigrated and that does not feed the forecasting system.
“Food by means of direct reductions in consumption and some in the inversions, but not in the pension base”, says Artavia.