Goldman Sachs is now even better on oil, expecting Brent crude prices to reach $ 75 a barrel in the third quarter of this year, due to faster market rebalancing, lower expected stocks and traders hedging against inflation.
In a comment Sunday, quoted by Forexlive, analysts at the investment bank predicted that Brent crude prices would reach $ 70 a barrel during the second quarter of this year and reach $ 75 in the third quarter. Goldman Sachs therefore increases its previous Q2 and Q3 forecasts by $ 10 per barrel.
“Faster balancing during the dark days of winter is expected to be followed by an increasing deficit this spring, as the increase in OPEC + production leaves our forecast for recovery recovery above the consensus,” Goldman Sachs said.
“We further believe that this additional march will be supported by the current repositioning for a reflational environment with investors turning to oil and buying a backward real asset that benefits from a stimulus-driven recovery and an unmatched ability to counter inflation. to hedge shocks, ”the analysts noted.
Goldman expects lower stocks to rise sooner and higher prices will lead to a rise in oil prices.
On Monday morning, Brent crude rose 2 percent to $ 64.18 at 9:54 ET, while WTI Crude again rose above $ 60 a barrel and rose 2.6 percent to $ 60.78.
Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs sent another positive message to the oil markets, saying in a note that it expects global oil demand to recover to pre-pandemic levels of 100 million bpd by August this year.
According to Goldman, the oil market was in the last quarter of 2020 with a deficit of 2.3 million bpd. With supply still tight at the start of 2021, the immediate future for prices is bright despite expectations for a slow recovery in demand.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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