Global fossil fuel use is accelerating and will get worse

LONDON – The world’s dependence on fossil fuels is likely to worsen in the coming decades, exacerbating the risk of a climate catastrophe as world leaders and CEOs repeatedly predict their commitment to the so-called “energy transition”.

Policymakers are under increasing pressure to keep promises made as part of the Paris agreement ahead of COP26, which will be held in early November in Glasgow, Scotland.

Although politicians and business leaders have publicly acknowledged the need for a transition to a low-carbon society, hopes of limiting global warming – and achieving a major global target – are rapidly waning.

Nearly 200 countries ratified the Paris climate agreement at COP21 and agreed to pursue efforts to limit the planet’s temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It remains an important focal point ahead of COP26, although some climate scientists now believe it is ‘virtually impossible’ to achieve this target.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that human-caused warming due to past and ongoing emissions adds about 0.2 degrees Celsius to global average temperatures each decade. And if it continues, the IPCC predicts that warming is likely to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius between 2030 and 2052.

To keep it below this level, climate scientists have called for a 20% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 compared to 2010, before reaching around 2050 net.

“It is absolutely the case that the transition is moving too slowly from a climate perspective, but what is important to recognize is that it is primarily a matter of political will and economic choices,” said Carroll Muffett, executive director of the nonprofit Center. . for international environmental law, telephoned CNBC.

“It’s not a matter of the absence of technology or the inability to do so. If you look at what the cheaper energy source is now, it’s not even a matter of economics. It’s much more about built – in. power structures and continued support of dying industries, ”he added.

One of the “best examples” of this rupture, Muffett said, is that some governments ‘and companies’ net-zero strategies have been dependent on increasing fossil fuel use “for decades.” This policy “usually relies heavily on unproven and potentially very dangerous carbon removal strategies to magically eliminate carbon dioxide.”

“We see this in the US, especially in the context of the proposed major investment in carbon capture and storage,” Muffett added.

Currently, the Earth’s carbon dioxide levels are higher than ever in the past 3.6 million years, according to research from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The findings, published last week, found that levels of CO2 and methane – the two main greenhouse gases – continued their “steady rise” last year despite a sharp economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

“Human activity is driving climate change,” said Colm Sweeney of NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory. “If we want to mitigate the worst effects, it will deliberately focus on reducing fossil fuel emissions to almost zero – and even then we will have to look for ways to remove greenhouse gases further from the atmosphere.”

The combustion of fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal releases large amounts of carbon dioxide into the air. Greenhouse gases capture heat in our atmosphere, which causes global warming. The IPCC has found that emissions of fossil fuels and industry are the predominant cause of global warming, accounting for 89% of global CO2 emissions in 2018.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said it expects global carbon dioxide emissions from energy-related sources to grow in the coming decades.

In 2019, the EIA projected that global energy-related CO2 emissions would increase by 0.6% per year between 2018 and 2050, with China maintaining its position as the largest single emitter of energy-related CO2 during this period.

Clark Williams-Derry, energy finance analyst at IEEFA, a non-profit organization, described the so-called ‘energy transition’ as ‘the process of moving a 19th-century energy system to the 21st century’.

“There’s a transition going on, but is it fast enough to prevent the worst devastation from climate change? Is it fast enough to alleviate air quality problems in developing world cities?” Williams-Derry said, citing dangerous levels of air pollution in countries such as India, China, Bangladesh and Vietnam.

“We are anchored by a legacy of choices, technologies and local economies that we want to withhold,” he continued. “It’s going to be a bumpy ride.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has acknowledged that the transition to fossil fuels is a major undertaking and that it will require ‘rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented change’ in all aspects of society. It also highlights the point that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius “can go hand in hand with ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society”, with clear benefits for both humans and natural ecosystems.

However, a United Nations analysis published on February 26 found that promises made by countries around the world to limit greenhouse gas emissions were “very far” from the in-depth measures needed to withstand the most devastating consequences. to prevent the collapse of the climate.

The UN’s latest report card on national climate action plans – sometimes also referred to as Nationally Determined Contributions – included countries responsible for only about one-third of global emissions. This is because only 75 of the 195 signatories to the Paris Agreement submitted their NDCs in time to reduce emissions by 2030.

The US, China and India, some of the largest issuers in the world, have yet to formulate their respective NDCs.

In response, UN Secretary-General Patricia Espinosa has urged policymakers to increase ambitious plans to reduce emissions this year. “If this task was urgent before, it is now of paramount importance.”