Members of the German Green Party, including co-leader Annalena Baerbock (C) and local candidate Katharina Fegebank (CL), are responding to initial exit polls giving the Greens 25.5% of the vote in the Hamburg by-elections on 23 February 2020 in Hamburg . , Germany.
Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Germany’s political institution has been in a flood since Chancellor Angela Merkel announced in 2018 that she would not be running for a fifth term.
Since then, amid constant speculation about who will be Germany’s next leader, new political trends have emerged in Europe’s largest and most influential economy.
The Green Party, for example, has become popular among liberal middle-class voters, who are benefiting from the shift of voters away from the political mainstream and a more environmentally conscious voters.
Recent voter polls and various state elections show that support for the Greens has increased to such an extent that it could become instrumental in forming the next government after the September national election.
Four polls conducted in Germany in mid-April supported the party between 20-22%, making the Green Party the second most popular party after Angela Merkel’s CDU / CSU alliance.
This center-right political group, consisting of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, has been dominant in German politics for years. Support for the alliance has increased by about 28-31% in the same polls this month.
The political direction of Germany could become clearer this week as the Greens and CDU / CSU announce which candidates they will run for chancellor. The Green Party confirmed on Monday that Annalena Baerbock will be her candidate for the next German chancellor.
Jürgen Trittin, a member of the Bundestag and former leader of the Green Party of Germany, told CNBC that Baerbock’s candidacy was a ‘historic decision’ and a new chapter for the party.
“For the first time, this (election) race is taking place between the Green Party on one side and the Conservatives on the right,” he said. Trittin said he believed Baerbock would be widely supported by the party as a whole.
The CDU / CSU is also expected to announce who it will vote in this week’s poll on September 26, but it is unclear whether Armin Laschet, leader of the CDU, and Markus Söder, leader of the CSU, will be the Conservatives after the next election. will lead.
The chief economist of Berenberg Bank, Holger Schmieding, on Monday gave the chance that the CDU / CSU will lead the next German government at 65%, with the Greens as junior partner (a probability of 95%).
However, the Schmieding also said there is a 35% chance that the Greens could form a government without the CDU / CSU. It could rather form a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (the SPD, currently a junior coalition partner with the CDU / CSU) and with the liberal FDP or the Left Party as a third partner.
‘Only a’ green-red-red ‘coalition between the Greens, the SPD and the left-wing party would usher in a major shift in German policy, especially in the direction of stricter labor, housing and product market regulations that the German trend growth would decrease, ‘Schmieding remarked on Monday.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank’s macro-strategy team said in a note on Monday: “It is no longer unlikely that the next German chancellor can come out of the Greens after the federal election in September.” Nevertheless, the bank still sees a CDU / CSU-Green coalition as its base scenario, as it expects the Conservative alliance to regain momentum.
The Schmidt of Berenberg told CNBC on Monday that a power vacuum caused by Merkel’s departure is to be expected.
“If an older leader leaves and Angela Merkel will not run again, there is a bit of a vacuum and it is right that we, to a certain extent, at European level and, to a greater extent, at the At the German level, “he told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe.