German Covid cases rise ‘exponentially’ amid risky vaccine break

It is no secret that Germany has seen a sharp increase in coronavirus cases in recent weeks, but one leading health expert in the country is now warning of ‘exponential growth’ in the number of infections.

This comes at a time when the country has suspended the use of the AstraZeneca University of Oxford coronavirus vaccine.

Epidemiologist Dirk Brockmann, an expert at the Robert Koch Institute for Infectious Diseases, said a recent weakening of Covid restrictions left a more virulent variant of the virus, which was only discovered in the UK late last year. spread.

“We are exactly on the flank of the third wave. This can no longer be disputed. And at this stage we have relaxed the restrictions, which are accelerating the exponential growth,” Brockmann told German broadcaster ARD on Tuesday.

“It was completely irrational to get loose here. It just fueled this exponential growth,” he said.

Germany was praised for its initial response to the pandemic, and managed to keep matters lower through an effective detection system, and keep the death rate lower thanks to modern hospital infrastructure.

But over the past few months, in the winter and faced with new, more virulent variants of the virus, it seems that it is difficult to contain infections. The EU’s slow explosion of vaccines has not helped matters, and the group is being criticized for the slower acquisition and deployment of vaccines. The vaccination of Germany has faced several obstacles, frustrating officials and health experts in the country.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and state leaders agreed earlier this month to gradually ease the restrictions, along with an ’emergency brake’ that would allow authorities to reverse the number of infections over 100 per 100,000 on three consecutive days. rise.

The government said the emergency brake was envisaged “if we experience exponential growth”. Merkel and regional leaders are expected to review the measures on March 22, where they will decide whether or not to move to the next step of reopening.

The number of cases per 100,000 reported on Tuesday was 83.7, up from 68 a week ago, and the RKI said the benchmark could reach 200 by mid-next month, Reuters said in a report on Tuesday.

The closure of Germany will currently last until at least March 28, but some restrictions have already been eased, with the start of schools, day care and hairdressers at the beginning of the month.

Then a week ago bookstores and florists were allowed to reopen and some museums as well. However, regional rules may differ, with states gaining discretion over how and when to reopen given rates.

On March 22, Germany’s five-point plan to re-open provided that some outdoor eateries, theaters and cinemas could reopen. But the increasing number of infections can derail the grid.

The top epidemiologist’s comments come as Germany and a handful of other European countries have decided to suspend the use of the coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford with concerns about the blood clots in a handful of vaccinated people.

The move surprised experts around the world, but the World Health Organization and the European Medicines Agency (both of which conduct a safety review of the vaccine) insist that all available evidence shows that the vaccine is safe and effective and does not require prompting. ‘ a higher risk of blood clots, which is common in the general population.

The vaccine manufacturer itself emphasized that the data showed that the number of blood clots in the vaccinated population was actually lower than could be expected naturally.

The WHO and EMA, which are due to publish the findings of its safety review on Thursday, say the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks and that countries should not interrupt their vaccination programs. Nevertheless, more than a dozen European countries have suspended its use. This could lead to a dangerous increase in infections and deaths, experts say.

“The latest figures indicate 40 fatal cases for every 20 million vaccinated with Astra-Zeneca vaccination. Each case taken separately is always terrible, but it is statistically insignificant in percentage. Instead, the delay in vaccination costs Europe has around 2,000 deaths a day, and tens of billions of euros in closures, closed businesses, “said Guido Cozzi, professor of macroeconomics at the University of St. Petersburg. Gallen, said in a note on Tuesday.

Even if public health institutions such as the WHO and the EMA reiterate on Thursday that the vaccine is safe, experts fear that more damage has been done to the reputation of the vaccine.

The AstraZeneca vaccine has faced several obstacles, ranging from question marks over test methods and data, misplaced hesitation about the vaccine’s effectiveness at the age of 65 and disputes over delays in EU delivery. Real-world data shows that the vaccine is extremely effective in preventing serious cases of Covid, hospitalizations and deaths in adults.