German chancellor race: men vying for Merkel’s job

Angela Merkel has long dominated European and international politics. But this autumn, after 16 years in office, the German chancellor will stand by and give her party the difficult task of finding a replacement. The process begins in earnest this weekend with the election of a new leader for her Christian Democratic CDU.

Many complain that the candidate field is rather narrow. And at first glance, the three straight, white, middle-aged men look somewhat indistinguishable. They all come from the same region, North Rhine-Westphalia, and each has a law degree.

For obvious reasons, they claim to embody a credible future for both the center-right CDU and Germany as a whole. And they make similar promises to focus on issues such as climate change and the digital economy.

But there are significant differences between them and the decision the CDU took over the weekend will tell us a lot about how the party predicts its future after Merkel. So who is in the race to lead the party?

Armin Laschet is a short, cheerful girl. The popular prime minister of Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine – Westphalia, throws himself into traditional carnival celebrations.

He calls himself a continuity candidate and has been considered Angela Merkel’s preferred candidate for at least some time. He defended her position during the refugee crisis in 2015 and is known for his liberal politics, passion for the EU and the ability to connect with immigrant communities.

But his appeal for an early relaxation of Covid’s restrictions last spring surprised many and Mrs. Merkel apparently made angry. He has since withdrawn from the position, but he had to work to repair the damage to his political credibility.

Norbert Röttgen presents himself as a fresh air.

Mrs. Merkel’s photogenic foreign affairs expert and former environment minister enjoys media reports comparing him to George Clooney.

Once considered an unlikely winner, he took advantage of his opportunities with an energetic digital campaign aimed at women and younger voters, and even released a Spotify playlist.

He is a regular contributor to German news programs and talk shows and advocates for a more hawkish stance on China and Russia. He will have to convince the party of his political abilities closer to home; Mrs. Merkel ousted her from the cabinet in 2012 after a humiliating defeat for the CDU in a regional election.

When Friedrich Merz flared back on the political scene in 2018 after almost ten years away, many assumed he would want revenge.

He was an influential figure in the CDU before Angela Merkel pushed him aside. He is a capable public speaker who earns a fortune in business and banking. He would like to advertise his economic expertise in a country that will sooner or later have to deal with the financial downfall of the Covid pandemic.

While worrying some with controversial comments about immigration and homosexuality, he calls on traditionalists in the party who are being denounced by Mrs. Merkel’s centrist politics.

Mr Merz is the leader in the recordings of CDU members, but the decision will be taken by 1001 party delegates in a secret ballot.

One of those delegates is Katja Leikert. She is looking for a modernizer, someone who will win more female voters and immigrants for the party.

“We do not need someone who just wants to differentiate themselves from Angela Merkel,” she told the BBC. “These were good times for Germany. But after 16 years we need a fresh start.”

Do not assume – although this was often the case – that the successful candidate in the CDU race will be the next German chancellor.

It will be spring before the CDU and its Bavarian sister party the CSU finally decide who will lead them to the September election as their chancellor candidate. After all, they want to be sure that their husband – and this will be a man – will win.

It may seem strange that, just a few months before a historic election, there is no official candidate. This is partly due to the fact that, when Angela Merkel resigned the party leadership in 2018, the subsequent election of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer was in theory the anointing of an approved heir. But AKK, as she is known here, resigns after a series of gaffes and leaves the field open again.

And just as the Covid pandemic closed Germany’s shops and restaurants, limiting much of daily life, it also changed the political landscape; the race to replace, delay and complicate Mrs Merkel.

This has raised the profile and improved the chances of two other potential successors: Bavarian Prime Minister and CSU leader Markus Söder and Health Minister Jens Spahn. Both men insist they do not want the top job – but no one really believes them.

The Bavarian leader has emerged as a clear favorite in public and CDU membership surveys. His decisive handling of the pandemic in his state increased his popularity. No CSU leader has ever reached the chancellery, but within the CDU there is reportedly little resistance to the idea.

The political analyst, Prof Ursula Münch, thinks that he, as mr. Söder says he wants to stay in Bavaria, it might mean that.

‘It’s very important to be successful in Bavaria – that’s the main task of the CSU and they do not have anyone else who is as good as Markus Söder in Bavaria.

“It is not in the interest of the CSU to host a Chancellor of the Federal Republic, as they are more interested in the fight against the CDU. about migration policy in the past with a party very close to them is a recipe for success in Bavaria. ‘

The health minister did well under pressure from a pandemic.

Some colleagues were also impressed by the way Mr. Spahn, who was previously considered too ambitious, graciously handles his failure to land party leadership when he acted against AKK and Friedrich Merz in 2018.

He supports Armin Laschet in his current effort, but in his opinion, he has voiced party members about his own chances. It is generally thought that Mr. Spahn will throw his hat in the ring if Mr. Laschet is unsuccessful or succeeds, but retains insufficient support.

Angela Merkel will, it seems, go out on a limb.

Thanks to her response to the pandemic, she is more popular at home than ever and her party enjoys a much better position in opinion polls.

Whoever the party decides as her successor will be disadvantaged by the fact that they do not have comparable experience and experience. But, as many here note, Angela Merkel also had to learn the ropes 16 years ago.

Look, they say, how she came out.