The weather system is heading to southern Michigan from today. Here’s a look at how much ice and snow should accumulate. Previously, it seemed like the temperature in southern Lower Michigan could warm to freezing. Now it looks like the temperature may be stubbornly cold.
Below is the radar forecast. The precipitation will be widely distributed this afternoon in the southern half of Lower Michigan. The purple shade area is a prediction of icy rain. The pink shade can be snow, sleet or sleet.
Radar forecast until 4 a.m. Saturday, January 2, 2021. Purple is icy rain. Pink can be snow, sleet or ice rain.
The southern third of Lower Michigan will have mostly freezing rain. The northern edge of the weather will be rain and snow. This means that the southern half of Lower Michigan will have dangerous winter conditions this afternoon through early Saturday morning.
Below is the total ice accumulation expected at the end of the precipitation at 04:00 on Saturday.
The total ice accumulation is expected today up to 4 hours Saturday 2 January 2021
The Lansing and Jackson areas are in the heaviest area of freezing rain, with ice amounts between two-tenths and four-tenths of an inch. All the major cities of Saginaw and Grand Rapids south to the Ohio-Indiana border can contain up to a tenth of an inch of ice. These include the Detroit area and Ann Arbor.
It is not a major ice storm status, but certainly enough for dangerous road conditions and some large limbs obstructed on power lines.
Flint, Alma and Grand Rapids will have more of a mix than a purely icy rain event. Watch for snow, sleet and icy rain. Below is the snowfall forecast of the model I trust the most in this situation. Let’s call it a snow of two to five inches through Lower Michigan.
Total forecast of snow and avalanche towards the end of the weather system at 04:00 on Saturday 2 January 2021
Yesterday, the hope was that the temperature would heat up to 34 degrees in the southern half of Lower Michigan, causing ice accumulations to melt. Today everything shows a slightly colder temperature pattern. Below I show the time when the temperature will be about the warmest. You can see that the freezing line stays very south, almost on the Ohio border. The far southeast, Detroit and Ann Arbor, could heat up to 33 or 34 degrees late tonight, which could improve the main roads. Elsewhere, it’s going to stay below freezing. Any road improvements there should be achieved by salt and the sunshine of Saturday morning.
Temperature forecast at 20:00 Friday 1 January 2021
The precipitation therefore increases this afternoon and ends tomorrow at 04:00. You may have to wait until the sun rises in the sky on Saturday morning and the salt is thrown on roads before it becomes safer.
It could dramatically improve on Saturday at 09:00 or 10:00 before the highway and highway. But do not wait until Sunday to drive, because the next snow system will be Sunday. By the way – if you read the linked article on the Sunday snow, it seems like the European has the best idea, based on the latest model runs.