Since I have repeatedly complained about it in 2020, I must emphasize that the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began publishing late and half-hearted realistic estimates about the extent of Covid-19 in the US.
It’s hard to describe what is intentional as a mistake, but the additional timely reminder reminds us at least that every fourth wave will be concentrated on people who are not among the approximately 100 million already infected and thus also acquired a degree of immunity. than the possibly overlapping 100 million that have been vaccinated.
Which means the fourth wave will be largely confined to young people who have not been vaccinated, who have been diligently refining themselves for the whole time and are now mixing and exposing themselves to risks in a way they did not do a few months ago .
In much the same vein, results from California, Florida, Germany, Sweden, and elsewhere have a simple correlation of mandatory connections with successful social distance. Overwhelmingly, one conclusion reads: Like Florida, whose peak taxation occurred long after New York or northern Italy, certain places benefited from thinking and considering time and taking more nuanced approaches to Covid’s arrival.
It is possible that we will see that lock-in measures have come too late, are not being obeyed, or are simply irrelevant in addition to the choices people make about when and how they expose themselves to risks.