A series of back-and-forth retaliatory movements and conflicting rulings between Washington and Tehran jeopardize the Biden government’s plans for a return to the 2015 nuclear deal in Iran.
“You can not act with impunity. Be careful,” President Joe Biden told reporters on Friday, describing his message to Iran after ordering airstrikes on buildings in eastern Syria used by the Pentagon by the Iranian-backed militia.
The strikes were in retaliation for an attack on February 15 in which rockets hit the Erbil International Airport in Iraq, which houses coalition military forces. The attack, which Western and Iraqi officials attribute to Iranian-backed military forces, killed one contractor with the U.S. coalition and injured several others, including a U.S. service member. Iran denies accusations of involvement.
None of this bodes well for what the Biden government considers a foreign policy priority: a return to the Iranian nuclear deal, also known as the JCPOA, which was drawn up under the Obama administration with various world powers and lifted economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for curb for its core program.
The deal has nearly collapsed since the Trump administration unilaterally scrapped it in 2018 and again imposed severe sanctions on Iran that paralyzed its economy.
Whether the deal could revive is a critical question for the Biden team’s foreign policy and heritage in the Middle East. Former US diplomat Joseph Westphal, who served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia during the second term of Obama, does not see this happening in the near or even medium term.
“I do not think we will see a deal,” Westphal told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Monday. “I think we may see the start of negotiations to reach an agreement. The end of the year is coming quickly. And I think these things take a lot of time.”
An invitation and a rejection
Earlier in February, the Biden team took an important step to offer to start informal negotiations with Tehran, marking the first U.S. diplomatic outreach in more than four years. Iran’s leadership turned down the invitation over the weekend.
Attempting some approach is difficult for Biden. He faces significant domestic opposition to the Iran deal and does not want to be ‘soft’ on the country’s government, especially not at a time when Iran is increasing its uranium enrichment and supplies in violation of the deal. ability to bomb.
Tehran insists it is responding to US sanctions, and that its action could be reversed once sanctions are lifted; Meanwhile, Biden says he will only lift the economic fines if Tehran refrains from violating them. The two are therefore in an impasse.
Tehran last week restricted access to the UN nuclear watchdog to its core activities, further jeopardizing the agreement, although inspectors still have access. And on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of being behind an attack on one of its tankers off the coast of Oman on Friday. Iran denies any involvement.
Attempts to level the playing field
Yet not everyone believes that the return to the JCPOA can happen this year. Ayham Kamel, head of the Middle East, head of political risk consultation at the Eurasia group, sees the current escalations as an attempt to compare the playing field.
“There is no easy path for JCPOA plus. I think everything is happening in the region right now – some of the escalation in Iraq, some of the escalation in Iran, and even the Iranians rejecting the first offer for direct negotiations with the US – I think it’s all negotiations before negotiations, ‘said Kamel.
“It’s an attempt to really balance the field, and the Iranians are trying to get the most out of their process. The JCPOA will take place, my award will take place again at some point this year, but it will be difficult.”
Kamel added that the Iranian leadership itself remains divided over the return to the agreement, as it outweighs the need for economic easing of sanctions and its opposition to US demands.
“The supreme leader wants an agreement, but many in the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard Corps) do not necessarily want to start a weak negotiation,” he said, referring to Iran’s powerful and ideological parallel military power. “They want negotiations to start from a strong position, and the regional escalation is all part of that.”
Others believe that a return to the agreement is inevitable simply because Iran’s economy has been so devastated by the sanctions. Its currency is falling into free fall, its exports have been dismantled and Iranians are struggling to afford food and medicine.
“I think an agreement is finally possible,” Richard Goldberg of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies told CNBC earlier this month, “because the Iranians need money.”