(CNN Español) – The recovery of the American Latin and Caribbean economies affected by the covid-19 pandemic could be frustrating with the recruitment of the contagios, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) advised in a document on the region published this month. The body is reconciling the disproportionate impact that the crisis has had on the staff, in a more agile manner in women, young people, informal workers and less qualified people, which is reflected in social indicators.
Alejandro Werner, director of the FMI’s Occidental Hemisphere Department, along with economists Takuji Komatsuzaki and Anna Ivanova, alerted that Latin America and the Caribbean would be slower than other regions of the world to recover gross domestic product. Consider that in 2023 we will reach the levels that precede the pandemic and in 2025 we will see the difference with GDP per capita.
In addition, it is advocating for an economic recovery designed with the risk of increasing social and human costs, but estimates that more than 17 million people will die in 2020 due to the pandemic. As such, the increase in desalination rates in the majority of countries and the extent to which employment is maintained due to the prevalence of the crisis. Estimates of the calculated document document have 18 million cases and 500,000 deaths from the new coronavirus.
Agregan in the blog that “the pandemic assisted a more violent wave in Latin America and the Caribbean deviated from the structural fragility inherent in the region (for example, more workers in sectors that require physical proximity and less and sectors that allow telecommunications). Depending on its population, the region has paid an invoice for termination of infections and deaths ”.
The truck to recover from the FMI
The IMF estimates that this year the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are experiencing a 4.1% recovery — a mediocre point more than what was anticipated in October — ahead of the expectation that the holiday camps will be more massive, economic crime prospects for the United States and recovering the prices of some basic materials. All in all, insurance will accelerate economic growth in the coming months.
FMI
Increase the recovery forecasts for 2021 for Brazil (3.6%), Colombia (4.6%), Chile (5.8%), Mexico (4.3%) and Peru (9.0%). However, due to the decline in the reactivity of the travel and tourism sector, the expectations of its forecasts for the Caribbean economy (2.4%). Sondeverbod, those that export prime materials (Guyana, Suriname in Trinidad and Tobago, will receive a 4.0% recovery this year).
The IMF considers that a more rapid recovery with additional fiscal support, effective evacuation campaigns and the exit pandemic content. Podrían takes care of the crime, because of it, the phrase to contain the contagios, new confinements and a change of activity of the people. Además, alerta: “A more debilitating recovery in the labor markets inflicts a more permanent social day. A repentant change in the activity of international inversionists could generate pressure on the countries that address tax and external vulnerabilities ”.
The multilateral organization considers that the contraction that will affect the region’s economies in 2020 is down to -8.1% projected in October, down to -7.4% on the rapid recovery that we will experience between July and September, large economies such as Argentina, Brazil and Peru. It also influences the reactivation of the manufacturing sector — even with the services — and the net exports that it regresses to pandemic prevalence levels. However, it is believed that inversion and consumption are discussed.
According to these experts, the IMF has raised more than US $ 66,000 million to 21 countries, including contingent credit lines, which represent more than three thirds of the emerging cash assistance it has provided worldwide.
The officials make various recommendations to the governors of the region: prioritize the resources and the sanitary systems, the vacancies and the tests. Luego, it supports the vulnerable sectors most affected by the sanitary crisis and to advance the recovery that has been achieved. In this sense, it is worth noting that the tax evasion of premature labor will put a stop to these goals.