PLEASE TAKE NOTE: This forecast, compiled by The Hollywood ReporterScott Feinberg, columnist for the awards, reflects Scott’s best efforts to predict the conduct of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He achieves this view by consulting with voters and strategists, analyzing marketing and campaigns, results of awards that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars themselves. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
* BEST PICTURES *
1. Nomadland (Searchlight)
2. Promising young woman (Focus)
3. The Chicago 7 Trial (Netflix)
4. Minari (A24)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
6. The father (Sony Classics)
7. Sound of Metal (Amazon)
8. Mank (Netflix)
* BEST DIRECTOR *
1. Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
2. Emerald Fennell, Promising young woman
David Fincher, Mank
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
5. Thomas Vinterberg, Another round
* BEST ACTOR *
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The father
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman, Mank
5. Steven Yeun, Minari
* BEST ACTRESS *
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising young woman
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. Second day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a woman
* BEST Supporting Actor *
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Chicago 7 Trial
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
4. Leslie Odom, Jr., A night in Miami
LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
* BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS *
1. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Maria Bakalova, Borat subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
* BEST CUSTOM SCREENPLAY *
1. Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
2. The father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
3. A night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
4. The white tiger (Ramin Bahrani)
5. Borat subsequent Moviefilm (Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer)
* BEST ORIGINAL SCREEN GAME *
1. Promising young woman (Emerald Fennell)
2. The Chicago 7 Trial (Aaron Sorkin)
3. Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas and Kenny Lucas)
4. Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
5. Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)
* BEST DOCUMENTARY FUNCTION *
1. My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
2. Time (Amazon)
3. Crip Kamp (Netflix)
4. Collective (Magnolia / participant)
5. The molagent (Gravitas)
* BEST INTERNATIONAL FUNCTION *
1. Another round (Denmark)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
3. Better days (Hong Kong)
4. Collective (Romania)
5. The man who sold his skin (Tunisia)
* BEST animated feature *
1. Soul (Pixar)
2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV + / GKIDS)
3. Over the moon (Netflix)
4. Forward (Pixar)
5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix)
* BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY *
1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. The Chicago 7 Trial
5. News from the world
* BEST COSTUME DESIGN*
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Emma
4. Mulan
5. Pinocchio
* BEST FILM EDIT *
1. Sound of Metal
2. Nomadland
3. The Chicago 7 Trial
4. The father
5. Promising young woman
* BEST MAKEUP & HAIR STYLE *
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Mank
3. Hillbilly Elegy
4. Emma
5. Pinocchio
* BEST ORIGINAL SCORE *
1. Soul
2. Minari
3. Mank
4. News from the world
5. Da 5 bloods
* BEST ORIGINAL SONG *
1. “Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
2. “Io Si (seen)” (The life ahead)
3. “Fight for you” (Judas and the Black Messiah)
4. “Hear my voice” (The Chicago 7 Trial)
5. “Speak now” (A night in Miami)
* BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN *
1. Mank
2. Tenet
3. News from the world
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
5. The father
* BEST SOUND *
1. Sound of Metal
2. Soul
3. Mank
4. News from the world
5. Greyhound
* BEST VISUAL EFFECTS *
1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. Love and monsters
5. The Only Ivan
* BEST animated short *
1. Burrow
2. If anything happens i love you
3. Yes people
4. Opera
5. Genius Loci
* BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT *
1. A love song for Latasha
2. A concert is a conversation
3. Colette
4. Do not split
5. Hunger Ward
* BEST LIVE ACTION CARD *
1. Two distant strangers
2. The Letter Room
3. The current
4. Feel through
5. White Eye