A Facebook report says deaths in the UK have increased COVID-19, while cases have dropped and the question of vaccinations may be to blame for this pattern. However, the trend described in the reports does not match the data, and the UK medicine regulator said the analysis indicated that COVID-19 vaccination did not play a role in deaths.
The report (here) reads: ‘Vaccinations started in the UK on 8 December 2020. Since then, deaths have increased and cases have dropped. It makes no sense. Which caused a higher mortality rate per case. The vaccines maybe? ”
The post contains screenshots of two graphs from the Worldometer UK Coronavirus dashboard (here).
Although the COVID-19 vaccines reduce the likelihood of serious diseases due to COVID-19, it has not yet been proven whether it prevents people from becoming infected with the virus that causes the disease and then spreading it to others. As such, it is unclear how the deployment of vaccines is expected to affect case numbers. However, the fall in cases described in the report does not match the available data.
Although the message is correct that vaccinations started in the UK on 8 December (www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55227325), the cases did not decrease in the following weeks. According to its own source of information, Worldometer, 12,282 cases of COVID-19 were recorded on 28 December, rising to 16,578 on 9 December and to 20,964 on 10 December. Business continued to rise sharply before reaching a peak of 68,053. daily new cases on January 8th. The 7-day average peaked the next day. Since then, things have fallen as the UK remains under lock-in restrictions.
If we look at mortality rates, which are more volatile daily compared to cases due to a backlog in the reporting period, the 7-day averages from 12 to 29 December show that deaths remained stable in the range 400-550, and then rose sharply before reaching the 26-day daily deaths of 1,241 daily deaths on 26 January. Since then, the 7-day average numbers have dropped.
One study showed that the mean time from onset of the first symptoms to death in fatal COVID-19 cases was 14.5 days (here). Another one found it was 18.5 days (here). As such, we can expect the curve of death rates in the UK to reflect case numbers on a smaller scale with a delay of 2-3 weeks. This is what the numbers show.
An analysis by the Regulatory Agency (MHRA) of UK medicines and healthcare products. The Yellow Card scheme, which allows anyone to report suspected side effects to the vaccine, said that patterns of reporting and a review of individual reports do not indicate that the vaccine plays a role in any deaths ( see p. 12 here).
VERDICT
Untrue. UK COVID-19 cases gradually increased to the point where the COVID-19 vaccination program began and only began to fall in January, with the country locking down. Deaths later peaked, according to an expected pattern. An MHRA analysis suggested that the COVID-19 vaccine did not play a role in any reported deaths.
This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our work to actually check social media posts.