With hundreds of thousands of views and more than 3,000 shares on Facebook, a video by the conservative American non-profit PragerU claims that ‘Sweden is proving that locks are useless’ to promote the spread of COVID-19 and that the population probably’ have a herd. immunity ”due to the lack of nationwide closures. These allegations are false.
The video in question, which sees the founder of the organization, Dennis Prager, sitting on a chair by a fireplace with the caption ‘Follow the Science’ Is a LIE ‘can be seen here and here.
The following fact check examines the current state of COVID-19 infections and deaths in Sweden, the country’s response to the pandemic over the past few months, and the number of additional infections needed to potentially achieve herd immunity.
CURRENT SITUATION COVID-19 IN SWEDEN
With the highest daily average reported on November 12, COVID-19 infections in Sweden are currently at 99% of the peak, with an average of 4,625 new infections each day. At the time of publication of this article, there have been 257,934 infections and 6,891 confirmed coronavirus deaths in the country since the onset of the pandemic. The Scandinavian county had 10 352 390 inhabitants as of the middle of 2020 (here).
According to death analyzes from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (here), the mortality rate in Sweden is 2.6% – higher than that of neighboring Finland (1.6%), Norway (0.9%) and Denmark (1.0% ), as well as the United States (2.0%). As a country, Sweden had 66.76 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 people, compared with 7.23 in Finland, 6.28 in Norway, 14.59 in Denmark and 82.72 in the United States.
As shown here by Our World in Data, a scientific publication managed by researchers from the University of Oxford, Sweden’s daily COVID-19 deaths per million increased by 1,200% between 1 August and 1 December.
SWEDEN IS NOT “PROVEN THAT KEYS ARE USELESS”
As Prager says in the video, “Sweden did not lock up” in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike many countries around the world that want to limit the spread of the new coronavirus infections by shutting down places such as schools, workplaces and international borders, Sweden has become an international outlier. precautions as social distance to limit the spread of the virus (here, here).
In late June, Sweden announced a commission to evaluate its pandemic response, responding to criticism over a death toll far higher than that of its neighbors (here). At that time, more than 5,300 Swedes died, compared with about 250 in Norway, 600 in Denmark and 325 in Finland, all of whom have half the population.
Anders Tegnell, the country’s biggest epidemiologist and architect of its unorthodox pandemic strategy, predicted amid a summer lust for infections (here) that Sweden is likely to see local outbreaks, but no major second-wave COVID-19 cases in the autumn (here).
As set out in a September 18 article published by McGill University’s Office of Science and Society (here), although Sweden does not apply compulsory lock-ins, it has in some way ‘adapted to a new norm’ that for many meant to use hand sanitizer and meeting friends outside.
However, as set out in the McGill analysis, workers in long-term care homes did not have personal protective equipment, and more than half of COVID-19 deaths in Sweden occurred in nursing homes. part of their own failures.
In addition, the public health agency’s decision not to take the risk of asymptomatic spreaders (here) and the ambivalence of wearing a mask, “is also responsible for a false sense of reassurance,” the McGill article reads.
Sweden is currently struggling to set a new second wave of the disease (here) daily for most of November.
On November 12, Tegnell himself acknowledged that the country was fighting a second wave of the pandemic, after suggesting in August that such a scenario was unlikely.
According to the Washington Post (here), it appears that even Sweden is abandoning the Swedish model, ‘with national authorities banning gatherings of more than eight people and banning alcohol sales at restaurants and bars after 10pm.
As reported here by Reuters, between 20 and 24 November, Sweden registered 17 265 new cases of coronavirus, and 15 084 new cases recorded during the corresponding period a week earlier (here).
Based on the information reported above, Dennis Prager’s assertion that “Sweden is proof that locks are useless” is inaccurate.
A study published in July by the University of Virginia School of Medicine (here) argued that the lack of nationwide exclusion has increased COVID-19 deaths in Sweden.
At the time of the investigation, Sweden’s per capita mortality rate was almost four times that of Denmark, almost seven times that of Finland, and more than seven times that of Norway – all countries that introduced much stricter measures than Sweden.
Here is a previous Reuters fact check on the effectiveness of locks amid the pandemic.
SWEDEN HAS NOT RECEIVED HERD IMMUNITY
Prager claims in the video that Sweden has probably achieved “herd immunity”, which is defined here by the Mayo Clinic as the point at which “a large part of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, which spreads the spread of diseases are unlikely to cause from person to person. ”
According to the Mayo Clinic, “there are two pathways for herd immunity to COVID-19 – vaccines and infection.” With promising vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca awaiting approval (here), herd immunity refers Prager to the species that is dependent on community infection.
With 257,934 total reported infections, only about 2.5% of the 10.2 million inhabitants of Sweden have so far ‘officially’ had COVID-19 (here, (here)).
A study published in the journal Lancet on November 4 (here) estimates the required herd immunity to block SARS-CoV-2 transmission at about 60 to 72%.
Even if the “unofficial” infections were higher than 2.5%, it is unlikely that they would have reached the required level of herd immunity. Using the bottom of this estimate, a total of more than 6.1 million people in Sweden would have to be infected to achieve herd immunity. Based on the higher point, more than 7.2 million would have to be infected.
Regarding herd immunity, Tegnell said in a letter from Stockholm on November 24: “We see no signs of immunity in the population that is currently delaying the infection.” (here) A report by the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter in November said about a third of Stockholmers tested had antibodies (here).
The possibility of re-infection with COVID-19 poses another obstacle to the achievement of herd immunity through community infection (here, here). According to the Mayo Clinic, “further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies against the virus in those infected” (here).
PragerU does not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.
The Reuters Fact Check team earlier unpacked a misleading PragerU video here that presents explanations about climate change without a key context.
VERDICT
Untrue. The current COVID-19 situation in Sweden is not proof that locks are useless. ‘COVID-19 infection and mortality statistics show new increases in November 2020, meaning Sweden has not achieved herd immunity.
This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our work to actually check social media posts.