Social media messages have offered misleading statistics on the death toll in England and Wales as alleged evidence that the coronavirus pandemic is not real.
An example of one such post (here) compared this year’s mortality rate with previous year numbers returning to 2013. It claims that the National Statistics Office (ONS) registered 511,883 deaths by week 47 (November 20). has, 20,000 fewer deaths than last year ”. The report ends with the sentence: “Where is this pandemic exactly what killed the country and its economic future and the forced closure and increasing job losses?”
The statistics provided are partly incorrect and do not show the full picture: deaths this year are significantly higher than normal.
The post claims that its figures were obtained from US and the data from 2013 – 2019 are accurate. WE indeed reported that the total mortality rate in England and Wales in 2013 was 506,790, 501,424 in 2014 (here), 529,655 in 2015 (here), 525,048 in 2016 (here), 533,253 in 2017 (here), 541,589 in 2018 and finally 530,841 in 2019 (here).
However, according to the latest ONS data, the preliminary total number of deaths registered in England and Wales in week 47 in 2020 was 542,463, and not 511,883 as according to the post (select ‘latest version’ here and then select ‘weekly figures’ 2020 ‘, then see’ total deaths, all ages’). An older version of US data shows the same total for week 47 (click ‘Date Replaced December 8, 2020’).
It is unclear where the 2020 figure in the social media post comes from. Other data sheets in the latest ONS version have different figures, for example ‘estimated total deaths 2020’ was 537,430 per week 47 using a statistical model.
It is too early to accurately determine the total number of deaths for 2020, but US figures recorded on 5 December 2020 show that there were 43,987 more deaths than the five-year average between 2015 and 2019 for January to November in England, with 1 981 more deaths than the average in Wales (here, see part seven).
Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), calculated by US to provide clearer annual comparisons, show that England suffered the most: its annual ASMR for 2020 was 1,029.4 deaths per 100,000 people. WE said it: “was statistically significantly higher than all the years between 2009 and 2019.” (here, see part six).
The latest weekly figures also show that 15% more deaths have been registered in England and Wales compared to the five-year average for the week ending December 4 (here).
Government figures using data from 18 December show that 203,845 people in the UK have tested positive for COVID-19 over the past seven days, a weekly increase of 54.8%. In addition, 12,745 patients were hospitalized with the new coronavirus, which is 18% more than the previous week (coronavirus.data.gov.uk/).
The analysis in the misleading posts on social media does not prove that the pandemic did not occur. England recorded 59,005 deaths of people within 28 days after a positive COVID-19 test, while the number of deaths recorded with COVID-19 on the death certificate stood at 65,061 on 21 December (here). In Wales, these figures are 3,125 and 3,878 respectively (here).
Reuters has uncovered similar misinformation here and there.
VERDICT
Untrue. The figures quoted in this report are partly inaccurate and do not show that there were fewer deaths in 2020 than 2019, nor that the pandemic is false. According to ONS, age standardized death rates in England are “statistically significantly higher than in all years between 2009 and 2019”. Figures recorded by 5 December show that between 1 January and 30 November there were 43 987 more deaths than the average of five years and 1 981 deaths in Wales.
This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our fact-checking work here.