Social media users shared a tweet claiming that 70% of voters in Georgia, United States, said they would vote for former US President Donald Trump in 2024, and 55.5% approve of the task currently facing President Joe Biden doen, af.
The figures come from a poll of 1,093 people in Georgia by InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Group, published a day before the original tweet was posted. The 55.5% represents the percentage of the figure who said they do not approve of the task that Biden performs, not 55.5% of all voters. Only likely Republican primary voters were asked if they would vote for Trump in 2024, meaning the 70% percentage represents 70% of Republican voters polled, not all voters.
The posts (here, here) show a screenshot of a tweet (here) posted on March 13, 2021 by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who was a Republican presidential candidate in 2008 and 2016 (here). The tweet says: “70% of Georgians said they would vote for Trump in 2024, and 55.5% disapprove of the work Biden is doing. Let yourself wonder how Biden could win Georgia, but you better not wonder out loud. ”
In the 2020 presidential election, Biden became the first Democrat Georgia has carried since 1992 when he won by 12,670 votes (here, here). A handout, audit and a formal narrative requested by Trump’s re-election campaign (claiming that the voter fraud was without proof and did not want to accept the result) confirmed Biden’s victory in the state (here).
On March 12, 2021, one day before the tweet was posted, InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Group published a joint survey (here) among 1,093 likely 2022 general voters and likely primary voters in Georgia, conducted from March 7 to March 9, 2021. , visible here. At the time of the November 3, 2020 presidential election, the total number of active voters in Georgia was 7,233,601 (here). Reuters calculated that respondents in the survey therefore represent about 0.015% of the number of active voters. On page 2, the survey states that the margin of error is 2.88% and the confidence level is 95%.
The poll asked all respondents to the survey, “What is your opinion on how Joe Biden handles the job of president?” (as seen on page 3 here). 46.5% said they strongly disapprove and 9% said they do not approve, a total of 55.5% who do not approve of Biden’s job as president, which is the same in social media posts. 41.2% said they approve of how Biden handles the presidency.
In response to the question “What best describes what you would probably do if Donald Trump were to run in the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary?”, 70% of respondents said they would absolutely vote for Trump. However, the survey makes it clear that this question was asked only to likely Republican primary voters and said, “Only likely GOP Primary voters polled” (see page 8 here).
Patrick Hickey, chief operating officer of InsiderAdvantage, and Caroline McFadden, assistant chief executive of Trafalgar Group, both told Reuters in an email that the “likely GOP primary voters” were part of the 1,093 respondents. Hickey added that it was “correct that the poll indicated that 70% of GOP voters would vote for Trump in 2024, not 70% of all Georgians.” McFadden agrees: “This is not 70% of the general electorate in Georgia.”
In Georgia, voters can only vote in one party’s primary, so voters running in the presidential election must vote for a Democratic or Republican vote (here, here).
VERDICT
Untrue. In a March 2021 poll by InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Group, 70% of likely Republican primary voters said they would absolutely vote for Trump in 2024, not 70% of all polled voters. 55.5% of 1,093 voters who responded to the survey (about 0.015% of Georgia’s active voting population) said they did not approve of Biden’s job as president.
This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our fact-checking work here.