Fact check of 7 statistical allegations from Biden’s (fairly factual) economic speech

We looked at many of the statistical claims that Biden made in the speech – and found that Biden is very factual, although there are some nuances to note. Here is a review of seven of the claims we looked at:

Facts first: This figure is approximately accurate, but it is based on a broad definition of ‘educators’.

Biden’s claim is based on official federal data on people working in ‘local education’. Indeed, this data shows a loss of more than 600,000 jobs – specifically 681,400 jobs – between January 2020 and December 2020. (The data for December are preliminary and may be adjusted later.) However, it is noteworthy that these numbers all count in are employed by local educational institutions – including people such as cafeteria workers, conservation workers and students who are on the payroll for various reasons – so ‘educators’ should not be interpreted as teachers.

Poverty

According to Biden, the U.S. bailout plan will cut 12 million Americans out of poverty and halve child poverty. That is five million children being rescued from poverty. Our plan will reduce poverty in the Black community by one third and reduce poverty. in the Spanish community by nearly 40 percent. ‘

Facts first: These figures are, of course, predictions rather than guarantees; Biden got them from a “preliminary analysis“by scholars from Columbia University’s Center for Poverty and Social Policy, who looked at the impact of certain components of its plan. As with other economic modeling, this analysis relied on various assumptions about the future that may not come true. But other experts say the Columbia figures Biden quoted make sense.

Among other assumptions, scholars have assumed an average of 6% unemployment for 2021. This is plausible – the December rate was 6.7%; the Federal Reserve expects a decline to 5.0% in 2021. “These estimates are quite reasonable,” said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, about the numbers Biden quoted. Strain added: “The Biden Plan contains several provisions that will significantly increase the income of low-income households. You would expect it to have a significant impact on child poverty rates, and the estimates made in this report, is very reasonable. ”

Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, director of the Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern University, said “their assumptions seem reasonable and they are known for analyzing them carefully.”

You can click here for a summary of what’s in Biden’s plan. These include additional direct payments, increased unemployment benefits, billions in rent and food aid, billions in child care, an increase in child tax credit, and an increase in the federal minimum wage from $ 7.25 per hour to $ 15 per hour.

Existing conditions

Biden cites an executive order that seeks to ensure that people can still receive unemployment benefits if they turn down a job offer because they think the work will endanger them or their families through Covid-19. He said: “At present, about 40 percent of households in America have at least one member with an existing condition.”

Facts first: This figure is approximately accurate according to research data. “In fact, it’s probably an understatement,” said Cynthia Cox, vice president of the Kaiser Family Foundation, which studies health issues.

A Gallup poll in November found that 48% of respondents said they or a family member living with them had a condition, Gallup told CNN. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimated in 2019 that 45% of non-elderly families have at least one non-elderly adult member with an existing condition. If you included people 65 and older in the analysis, Cox would note that the figure would be even higher.

Covid-19 deaths

On the US coronavirus crisis, Biden said: “We are 400,000 dead, and we are expected to reach more than 600,000.”

Facts first: Different experts have different expectations, but Biden’s ‘good 600,000’ figure is unfortunately very plausible.

According to Johns Hopkins University data, there were more than 413,000 U.S. deaths from the coronavirus. A model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is now planning a total of 569,000 deaths by May 1, and there will almost certainly be additional deaths after that date. Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, said Biden’s statement was a reasonable projection. ‘

The minimum wage and poverty

Biden said no one in America has to work 40 hours a week to be below the poverty line. Fifteen dollars get people above the poverty line.

Facts first: It is true that some people who are currently below the poverty line would move above the poverty line if the federal minimum wage were raised to $ 15 per hour: in 2019, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that a minimum wage of $ 15 “, net, about 1.3 million people out of poverty. “Others offer different estimates; Ben Zipperer, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a progressive think tank, said:” We believe the CBO is too pessimistic. ” He said it was “more plausible” that between 1.9 million and 4.0 million people would be rescued from poverty.

According to the CBO, families below the poverty line will see a 5.2% average increase in income under the current law due to the increased minimum wage, while families above the poverty line under the current law will see an average decrease of 0.1 % in revenue (partly due to a reduction in business revenue). The CBO added: “In an average week in 2025, the $ 15 option would increase the wages of 17 million workers who would otherwise earn less than $ 15 per hour. Another 10 million employees who would otherwise earn more than $ 15 per hour “But their wages could rise. But 1.3 million other workers will be unemployed, according to the CBO’s average estimate.”

Although the overall economic impact of a federal minimum wage increase is complicated to assess, it is easy to understand the basics of how it would improve the outlook for some workers. The weighted average 2019 poverty threshold for a family of four was $ 26,172. At the current federal minimum wage of $ 7.25 per hour, someone would be more than $ 11,000 below the poverty line, even if they worked 52 hours a week 40 hours a week. If he earns $ 15 an hour, the person will exceed the threshold if he works 44 weeks a year.

“So as a labor standard – yes, a minimum wage of $ 15 can be accurately described as the fact that most families cross the poverty line if they work full time all year round,” said Jeannette Wicks-Lim, associate professor at the University. of Massachusetts Amherst.

Wicks-Lim noted that there are nuances here. Some people have part-time work hours, part-time jobs, or larger families; the cost of living varies greatly per place, but the official poverty line does not adjust for this; exceeding the poverty line could mean that only someone ‘escaped severe hardship’, she said, not that ‘they can maintain a decent standard of living.’

Hungry

Biden said: “We need to address the growing famine crisis in America. One in seven households in America – one in seven – more than one in five black and Latino households in America report that they do not have enough food to not to eat. “

Facts first: These figures were correct according to December data from the latest census by the Census Bureau on Americans’ food situations (which the bureau warns of as an “experimental” survey).

Between December 9 and December 21, 14% of adults, 24% of black adults and 21% of Latino adults reported that they had often or sometimes not had enough to eat over the past seven days.

Biden’s plan includes a range of measures aimed at addressing hunger, including an extension through September of a 15% increase in food stamp benefits that Trump signed in December. The expansion will currently expire at the end of June.

Renters

Biden said, “About 14 million Americans – 14 million – have fallen behind on rent, and many can be evicted.”

Facts first: Fourteen million is a plausible figure that extrapolates a bit from the findings of the Census Bureau for December.

The experimental survey of the office for December 9 to December 21 found that 10.1 million tenants lived in households that were not rented. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a progressive think tank, devised the figure of 14 million by adjusting the data from the Census Bureau to declare that many tenants did not respond to the survey.

CNN reported in December that investment bank and consulting firm Stout found that more than 14 million U.S. households at the time were at risk of eviction. According to the Census Bureau survey, 5.2 million people said it was likely or somewhat likely that they would have to leave their homes due to eviction in the next two months.

Biden’s bailout package would provide $ 25 billion in rental assistance to low- and moderate-income households that lost jobs during the pandemic (in addition to the $ 25 billion Trump approved in December). Another $ 5 billion is aimed at helping struggling households pay bills. A further $ 5 billion is for states and localities to help people at risk of becoming homeless.

Apart from the bailout package to be approved by Congress, Biden took executive action on his first day in office to extend the morandium on many evictions and adverse conditions until the end of March. The moratoriums approved by Trump are expected to expire at the end of January.

CNN’s Katie Lobosco and Tami Luhby contributed to this report.

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