A ‘copy and paste’ Facebook status that misleads social media users about the impact of the coronavirus pandemic has spread online.
The 662-word post contains more than 30 questions that express skepticism, including: “Why are there so many videos of empty hospitals?” and “Why does 2020 have the 14th highest overall death rate in the last 30 years?” (here, here, here, here).
The post will examine seven questions in the post, which can be considered as the primary demands. The remaining questions, including different opinions, fall outside the scope of this check.
Question one asks, “Why did a Cambridge PCR test study among 10,000 people show that 100% of their positive things are false?” This question refers to testing of students conducted by the University of Cambridge. On 6 December 2020, the student test report showed that 9,376 students from 1,937 gave different ‘pools’ of readable swabs. Ten of the 1,937 pools returned positive results in the initial testing, but the individuals in the pools were tested and returned negative results. Fact-checkers Full facts reported in depth here.
Question two asks, “Why are there so many videos of empty hospitals?” This question follows a wave of videos showing quiet corridors in some hospital buildings. The BBC News Reality Check team recently reviewed these videos (www.bbc.co.uk/news/55560714) and reported: ‘because of the way healthcare trusts reorganized hospitals, which often separated Covid patients from others and non- urgent care canceled. to free up capacity, some parts of hospital buildings will currently look empty. This does not mean that hospitals are not busy. Reuters also published fact-checks in individual videos showing quiet hospital buildings (here, here). The latest government figures show that there are more than 37,000 COVID-19 patients in UK hospitals (here).
Question three asks: “Why are the Nightingale facilities being demolished and closed?” The limited use of the Nightingale hospitals erected during the first wave of the pandemic was investigated. The government said in December they were staying ready (here) and London Nightingale Hospital was reopened last week to treat non-COVID-19 patients and reduce pressure on the city’s hospitals (here).
Question four reads: “Why is there a video after video of people pretending to be vaccinated?” The report does not refer to specific examples, but Reuters has dispelled various rumors that photos and videos of COVID-19 vaccine recipients are being staged (here, here, here, here)
Question five reads: “Why does 2020 have the 14th highest total death rate in the last 30 years?” The Facebook post does not say where the figures came from. Exactly the same claim – that by 2020 had the 14th highest death toll in the last 30 years – was made earlier on Twitter with reference to the British death toll (here).
The graph calculates the average number of deaths per population between 1991 – and 2018 by the total annual UK deaths (bit.ly/2J3VO31) by dividing annual UK population estimates (here) and multiplying the figure by a thousand. However, there was no complete data set for 2020 when the graph was published, so it is based on estimated mortality rates for the last two months of the year for Northern Ireland and Scotland and the last five weeks for England and Wales. The graph does not refer to how the estimates were calculated.
Since this table was published, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published a blog comparing deaths in 2020 to previous years (here). “There are different ways to measure mortality and to fully understand it, we need to look at it in a number of ways,” says author Sarah Caul, explaining why five-year average and age-standardized mortality rates are useful indicators.
Returning to the world mortality rate claim, there is still no complete data to assess whether 2020 had the 14th highest world mortality rate. However, the latest figures show that in 2020, most countries experienced an increase in excess deaths. Produced by Oxford University researchers, ‘Our World In Data’ updates its figures on excess deaths – that is, the number of deaths above and beyond the 5-year historical average – during the pandemic each week. The latest update on January 9, 2021 found that every country except Israel and Taiwan had an increase in excess deaths between January 5, 2020 and December 27, 2020 (bit.ly/3srxRnN and here). However, they note that this data cannot be calculated for each country, as few have statistical agencies that can report the death toll daily or weekly (here). The figures also do not include the recent weeks of countries’ data series due to delays in reporting (here).
Another question is asked: “Asymptomatic transmission is now being uncovered, so why are we still using this data to enforce restrictions?” This statement is incorrect and may be related to a viral claim from December 2020 that a study found no asymptomatic spread of coronavirus. Fact-checkers Politifact wrote: “In the journal article in question it was found that people with symptoms were more contagious than those without, but asymptomatic people transmitted the virus.” (Here)
It is not clear why some patients who test positive for the virus show no symptoms, but health officials believe they have a lower risk of transmission. However, the people who infect them may show symptoms (here).
Finally, the report reads: “Why, if they were already caught exaggerating their death rates in August, do you not think they would do it again?” The claim refers to the government’s decision in August to stop reporting all deaths after a positive test as a coronavirus death, and to introduce a cut-off of 28 days and 60 days after a positive test to record coronavirus deaths. This has reduced the total number of coronavirus deaths in England, but that does not mean the government has been ‘caught’ with the exaggerated deaths. The change in methodology, previously addressed by Reuters Fact Check (here), was made after the government reviewed its own data and learned more about the virus.
VERDICT
Partly untrue: this long message contains claims about the coronavirus pandemic that are wrong or misleading due to the missing context.
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