Reports spread on social media claiming that the decision to reopen Los Angeles County was political because the daily number of hospitalizations was lower on the day local home orders were instituted than when it was lifted. This claim does not have a context: although the figures in the posts are correct, it does not show that the number of hospitalizations was on an upward trend when the local home orders were introduced and that it decreased when the orders were lifted.
‘CA issued the Stay at Home order on 3 December. LA County hospitalizations were at 2572. Today [Jan. 25], when they canceled the order, LAC hospitalizations are 6697. Soooo yes, their story about ‘ICU capacity reopening’ is bullshit. It was political, ‘say the reports (here, here, here, here), which come from a tweet that is visible here .
As of Dec. 3, California Gov. Gavin Newsom began implementing home orders on a regional basis when the available space in hospital-intensive care units (ICUs) reached maximum capacity (here, here).
On January 25, California facilitated orders to stay at COVID-19 so restaurants could reopen for outings and greater social mixing: Governor Newsom said infection rates and hospital admissions in California had dropped dramatically, and projections show that the available ICU capacity to climb well. higher than 15% minimum thresholds during the next month (here, here).
The levels of provinces under the blueprint for a safer economy can be seen covid19.ca.gov/safer-economy/.
The social media messages correctly said that on December 3, when California started setting up local home orders, the number of daily hospitalizations in LA province was 2,572 and when the local home orders were lifted on January 25, the number of hospitalizations in LA province 6,564, as evidenced by data released here and here by the Los Angeles Department of Public Health.
However, the province of LA did not see a simple increase from 2,572 to 6,564 daily hospitalizations: hospitalizations were on an upward trend when home stay orders were introduced and peaked at 8,065 on January 6 and have declined downward trend since this highlight, as seen here and in the “hospitalization” tab here.
The current downward trend can also be seen in the daily reported percentage of COVID-19 tests that are positive, the daily number of deaths and the daily number of cases, as shown here and here (by choosing daily, non-cumulative cases and deaths).
As for ICUs specifically, the number of confirmed cases in ICUs in LA Province decreased at the time of publication, after peaking at 1,757 on January 17, as indicated in the “hospitalization” tab here. The ICU capacity in LA Province was 486 beds on December 3, reached a low of 236 beds on January 20, and then increased to 314 beds on January 27 (the most recent data available at the time of publication of this article). as seen in data visible here by searching the county of Los Angeles. Projections show that Southern California, where the province of LA is located, is expected to reach 33.3% ICU capacity within four weeks, that is, by February 21 (here). ICU capacity projections are based on four factors: current estimated local ICU capacity available, measure of current community transfer, current local rates and the percentage of ICU cases allowed (here).
LA County is one of 58 counties in California. Data for the whole of California show that daily hospitalizations and daily positive cases have a downward trend, as seen here. Four-week ICU capacity projections show that California is expected to reach an ICU capacity of 30.3% on February 21 (here).
VERDICT
Missing context. The daily hospitalization numbers in the posts are correct, but it does not show the shift from an upward trend in hospitalization when the stay-at-home orders were introduced, to the downward trend when the restrictions were lifted. ICU capacity in LA province and California showed upward trends from January 20 to January 27.
This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our fact-checking work here.