Reports circulating on social media claim that “only 133 million registered voters voted” to falsely claim that the number of votes cast for Joe Biden is not mathematically possible. The calculation on which this claim is based is misleading. The nationwide turnout is usually calculated using the voting population as the denominator, not the number of registered voters. About 239,247,182 people will have the right to vote in 2020. There is still no available figure for nationwide registered voters for 2020, but according to Reuters’ calculations, there were 206,557,583 registered voters according to the publication of this article.
Some iterations include a screenshot of a tweet by @MSMFactChecking on December 8 here (archived version archive.vn/po5Wz). The tweet reads: “Donald Trump received 74 million votes and (SIC) There are 133 million registered voters in the USA (SIC) If every registered voter went out and voted, there would be only 59 million votes left for Biden. How did he get 81 million votes? ”
In a subsequent tweet, the account explained here how this number was “calculated” based on “registered voters” and “turnout”. The tweet reads: “just to explain, in 2020 there were 213 799 485 registered voters whose conflicting sources say that the turnout was between 60% and 65%. I calculated it at an average of 62.5%, which means that just over 133,500,000 registered voters voted. 74,000,000 Trump + 81,000,000 Biden = 155,000,000 ”
WRONG NUMBER
Reuters could not find a source for the estimated number of registered voters mentioned (213,799,485), nor a nationwide number of registered voters for 2020. According to the latest published information by the US Census Bureau, based on their voting and registration annex to the current population survey (CPS), (here, Table 4.A), in 2018 there were approximately 153,066,000 registered voters in the US
The US election project explains here why the data of the CPS may show more limited results.
For 2020, Reuters’ calculations found that there were an estimated 206,557,583 registered voters (found by adding the available constituency statistics for the District of Columbia and all other states except North Dakota, which do not require voter registration, see here).
OUTPUT
The claim uses an average of 62.5% for the various “reported turnout” to calculate the figure of the “133,500,000 registered voters” who voted. This percentage is lower than the election reported by several media outlets, including Reuters (estimated at 66.9% by Edison Research, here), the Washington Post (66.3%, here), the New York Times (66.7 %, here) and CNBC (66.8%, here).
Again, this is calculated with the voting population (VEP) in mind, not the total number of registered voters in the country (as this claim does).
MIT Election Laboratory explains here why the VEP prefers to calculate voter turnout.
The use of the number of registered voters as a denominator for calculating the turnout nationwide is misleading, as registration requirements differ within countries (here). North Dakota, for example, does not require voter registration (here) and some states allow registration on election day (here).
According to the U.S. Election Project, an impartial website run by Michael McDonald of the University of Florida, www.electproject.org/2020g, there were approximately 239,247,182 people eligible to vote in 2020, based on age, citizenship, and do not consider the criminals. (according to state law).
Out of the more than 239 million voters, the U.S. election project reported that a total of 159,693,981 ballots were counted in the November 3 election. This is a VEP rise of 66.7%, according to their calculations.
According to data from Edison Research reported here by Reuters, Biden received 81,283,098 votes (51.3%), while Trump received 74,222,958 votes (46.8%).
These posts introduce a false narrative driven by the Trump campaign of widespread voter fraud during the presidential election (here). U.S. election safety officials said the election was “the safest in U.S. history” (here , here).
VERDICT
Untrue. More than 159 million people voted in the November 3 election. The claim misleadingly uses a registered voter projection to calculate the number of people who voted. This is misleading: the percentage reported by the media is based on the voting population, not on the number of registered voters.
This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our work to actually check social media posts.