In recent years, people have pinned their hopes on vaccines to end the COVID-19 pandemic.
Every month since June, USA TODAY has asked a panel of more than a dozen experts in medicine, virology, immunology and logistics to estimate on a mind clock when a COVID-19 vaccine would be available to most Americans.
This month, with three authorized vaccines and apparently enough stock, they say it’s just 45 minutes from noon, when shots will be widely available. The momentum follows a start with the explosion of the vaccine that stopped the clock at the beginning of the year. February time was 10:45
But the closer we reach the long-awaited goal, the less likely it will be the end of the pandemic that has disrupted lives and loves for an entire year.
Therefore, we asked our panel members: when can we declare victory?
Their definitions of an endpoint differ, from a level of outbreak no worse than the flu, to no new cases.
For Pamela Bjorkman, this is the smallpox scenario – an eradication of the virus. She is a structural biologist at the California Institute of Technology and views victory as a presentation when everyone in the world is vaccinated and there are no more cases.
Others see it as bringing COVID-19 into line with other diseases that humans have learned to coexist with.
For dr. Monica Gandhi, an expert in infectious diseases at the University of California-San Francisco, said the pandemic would be over when COVID-19 deaths dropped to the levels commonly seen at the seasonal flu.
“There are more than 30,000 deaths a year from influenza in the United States, so reducing COVID-19 deaths to less than 100 deaths a day would equate to a similar mortality rate as for flu,” she said.
We are nowhere near. About 1,900 Americans die each day from COVID-19.
It may not be possible to say that things have really shifted until next winter, when COVID-19 and all coronaviruses tend to peak.
“We can declare victory over this pandemic in the US if the virus causes only an insignificant bump this coming winter,” said Dr. Paul Offit, a pediatrician and head of the Center for Vaccination for Education at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, said.
To get there, Peter Pitts, president and co-founder of the Center for Medicine in the public interest, wants Americans to think they are being vaccinated as a patriotic duty. To win the war against the virus, the country must reach a national vaccination rate of at least 65% and probably closer to 85%.
“I see herd immunity taking place at some point between Memorial Day and the Fourth of July,” Pitts said. “All the more reason to come together as a nation and roll up our sleeves so we can celebrate with braai and fireworks.”
To achieve herd immunity, children must also be vaccinated, noted Vivian Riefberg, professor of practice at the Darden School of Business at the University of Virginia. At this stage, with studies still in progress, adolescents in the spring or early summer are eligible for vaccination, and younger children this fall or even later.
The official end of the pandemic may also come Prakash Nagarkatti, an immunologist and vice president of research at the University of South Carolina at Columbia, says Prakash Nagarkatti, if we are still flared up by COVID-19, but it is small enough to handle.
“There will be small fires in the form of sporadic cases of COVID-19, even after the vaccine has been given to the majority of the population, but it will be easier to put out such fires,” he said.
There is also the devastation of the economy to keep in mind, says Arti Rai, a health rights expert at Duke University Law School.
“A very important indicator is data on job growth,” she said. Once we reach or exceed the pre-pandemic levels, we should be able to catch a sigh of relief. ‘
We also need readiness for manufacturing and distribution to address smaller outbreaks, said Prashant Yadav, a medical supply chain expert at the Center for Global Development.
“He has sufficient vaccines and therapeutic supply to supply the demand and also an adequate supply of reserves of vaccines and therapeutic agents.”
As the country reopens, vigilance is needed, said Dr. William Schaffner, an expert in infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee, said.
As we gradually open schools, restaurants and sporting events, we will have to be mindful of whether these activities lead to a superspreader. If not, it will be very reassuring, ”he said.
All of this assumes that Biden’s government promises last week that there will be enough vaccinations to vaccinate every American adult by May.
Overall, the panel members agree that 500 million doses (200 million each from Pfizer and Moderna, 100 million from Johnson & Johnson) will be ready in time. The Biden government on Wednesday announced the purchase of another 100 million doses of Johnson & Johnson vaccine, although a delivery date has not yet been set.
If the government could not achieve its goal, Rai would have said. She mentions the administration’s ‘creative’ use of the tools she had at her disposal to name the technology transfer needed to scale up production.
“The latest example is the use of government funding and the Defense Production Act to develop a partnership between Johnson & Johnson and Merck that will help Merck’s facilities produce the J&J vaccine,” she said.
Getting everyone vaccinated can take longer. And convincing those who are not sure they want the vaccine is another obstacle.
“I remain concerned that it will be very challenging to get from 50% -60% coverage among adults (those who want the vaccine) to 80% -90% (which we need to control the pandemic),” said Daniel Salmon , director of the Institute for Vaccine Safety at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Scientists and researchers in the biopharmaceutical industry have made incredible progress in delivering the scientific solutions needed to end the pandemic, said Dr Michelle McMurry-Heath, President and CEO of the Biotechnology Innovation Organization, a trade group. .
“However, there are still hurdles, as the president knows it well,” she said. “We need to continue to work together, follow science and get as many shots in the arms as possible.”
How we did it
USA TODAY has asked scientists, researchers and other experts how far they believe vaccine development has progressed since January 1, 2020, when the virus was first recognized. Fifteen answered. We summarized their answers and calculated the median, the center among them.
This month’s panelists
Pamela Bjorkman, structural biologist at the California Institute of Technology
Dr Monica Gandhi, an expert in infectious diseases at the University of California-San Francisco
Sam Halabi, Professor of Law, University of Missouri; scholar at the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University
Dr Michelle McMurry-Heath, President and CEO of Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO)
Dr. Kelly Moore, deputy director of the non-profit coalition against immunization; former member of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices
Prakash Nagarkatti, Immunologist and Vice President of Research, University of South Carolina
Dr Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center and a treating physician in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Philadelphia Children’s Hospital and a professor of vaccination at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania
Peter Pitts, president and co-founder of the Center for Medicine in the Public Interest, and a former co-commissioner of the FDA for External Relations
Dr Gregory Pole, director of Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group, and editor-in-chief, Vaccine
Arti Railaw professor and health law expert at Duke University Law School
Vivian Riefberg, professor of practice at the Darden School of Business at the University of Virginia and a board member of Johns Hopkins Medicine, PBS, and Signify Health, a healthcare platform company that is changing the way care is paid for and delivered at home.
Daniel Salm, director of the Institute for Vaccine Safety at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Dr William Schaffner, a professor and expert in infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee.
Prashant Yadav, senior fellow, Center for Global Development, expert medical supply chain
Dr. Otto Yang, Professor of Medicine and Co-Head of Infectious Diseases at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA.
Contact Weintraub at [email protected] and Weise at [email protected].
Health and Patient Safety Coverage in USA TODAY is made possible in part by a grant from the Masimo Foundation for Ethics, Innovation and Competition in Healthcare. The Masimo Foundation does not provide editorial input.