Experts believe that the decrease in COVID-19 appears to be, but that there are different varieties at work

“Suspicious B.1.1.7 is now really starting to have an effect,” Jha wrote. And states are opening up. This is a problem. ‘

Nicholas Reich, a professor at the University of Massachusetts whose laboratory creates a pandemic ensemble model in collaboration with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, sounded a similar note. “For the first time in a while, I’m actively worrying about the new trends, and maybe more worried that it’s not getting the attention I think it deserves,” he said.

It appears increasingly, he said in an email, that cases of plateauing “are not just data discrepancies, but rather the variant that in some parts of the US is actually starting to take hold and start doing what it already does in a large part of Europe has been done. ” He noted that plateaus in some states have turned into rises, citing Michigan and New Jersey as examples.

He tweeted on Wednesday that the situation and hospitalization trends in Michigan ‘were not good’, saying that the laboratory’s forecast would last at least two weeks.

In Massachusetts, the seven-day average number of cases peaked in the first half of January and then fell sharply until the last week in February. Since then, it’s been hitting a plateau going up and down for the past week or so, with a slight rise. The levels remain higher than the lows reached last summer.

“There is only limited data available on the occurrence of the variants, but the available data indicate that in many places one or more variants are on the verge of competing with the predominant strains,” Reich said in the e-mail. . “It simply came to our notice then. To me, this suggests that this next 4-6 weeks is a very critical phase to be very vigilant, and not to let ourselves down while continuing to get shots in the arms. ”

“Yes, we should be concerned,” he said.

Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at the Scripps Research Institute in San Diego, suggested in tweets Wednesday that Minnesota and Georgia are two other states to look at.

Dr. Thomas Frieden, a former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a tweet on Thursday that he was concerned about a fourth upsurge in the United States. (For Massachusetts, this would be the third surge since the state kept the virus under control last summer.)

Public health officials at the national level have warned about variants due to concerns that they could spread faster, cause serious illnesses, not respond to treatments or vaccines, or have a combination of these traits. The B.1.1.7 variant is believed to spread more easily and rapidly, and some studies have suggested that it causes serious illnesses, the CDC says.

Dr Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s leading medical adviser on the pandemic, warned on Wednesday that the variants continue to threaten progress in reducing cases and vaccinating the population. “While we are cautiously optimistic about the future, we know there are still many challenges,” Fauci said in prepared remarks ahead of a congressional hearing Wednesday. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said in her remarks: “An increase in viral transmission could stop the progress we have made.”

Jha said in his tweets that a month ago in each U.S. state cases were declining, but now there are 15 more cases than two weeks ago, and 19 countries posted higher positivity rates in the same period.

Even hospitalizations, says Jha, creep up again and again in places.

“Not a surprise B.1.1.7 – probably represents about 40% of infections in the US today,” Jha tweeted. ‘This means that approximately 20 000 infections have been identified today, probably from B.1.1.7. This will become the dominant variant in the next few weeks. So what is the problem? ‘

He suggested that the public across the dam look to Europe for insights into what the variant can do here.

As the variant became dominant in European countries, Jha continued, they tended to see ‘large spikes in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. So are we in big trouble? ‘

Not necessarily, Jha tweeted.

He said the US has two options to avoid a similar fate: to continue vaccinating people “and fast”, and to maintain pandemic-related restrictions for a few more weeks.

“We do the first, not the second,” Jha tweeted. ‘Every high-risk person should be able to get a vaccine by mid-end of April. It’s so close. Every infection that kills someone today is someone who is vaccinated in the [next] a few weeks. We therefore need to keep restrictions on public health a little longer. ”

That means, Jha said, to maintain the requirements for indoor mask, not yet return to full restaurants and bars, and not to test.

“And it certainly adds to the urgency of vaccinating every person at high risk – older people, people with chronic diseases, as quickly as possible,” Jha tweeted.

The end result, Jha said, is that the country remains at a high level of infection.

“Am I sure we’ll see things increase? No, but worried, ”Jha tweeted. ‘Let us vaccinate people at high risk. Then relax public health measures in a smart way. This will enable us to enjoy a wonderful summer. ‘

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker said in an extensive interview with the Globe on Wednesday that he is working with the state to fully immunize 1 million people and federal officials and has a major boost in the vaccine supply, increasing confidence has that he can meet his goal of vaccinating more than 4 million adults by July 4th.

‘We had a fair shift [vaccination] program so far, despite the bumps along the way, ”Baker said. “We will continue to work as aggressively as possible to get as many people vaccinated as soon as possible. . . and the summer. ”

Ryan Huddle of the Globe staff contributed to this report. Material from previous Globe stories and Globe wire services was used.

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Travis Andersen can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @TAGlobe. Martin Finucane can be reached at [email protected].