Top intelligence officials from India and Pakistan held secret talks in Dubai in January in a new effort to calm military tensions over the disputed region of Kashmir in the Himalayas, people with good knowledge of the matter told Reuters in Delhi.
Ties between nuclear weapons rivals have been on ice since a suicide bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir in 2019 was traced to militants in Pakistan that led to India sending warplanes to Pakistan.
Later that year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi withdrew the autonomy of the Indian-dominated Kashmir to intensify its grip on the territory, provoking outrage in Pakistan and ending diplomatic ties and the suspension of bilateral trade. downgraded.
But the two governments have reopened a new channel of diplomacy, aimed at a modest roadmap to normalize tires over the next few months, the people said.
Kashmir has long been a hotspot between India and Pakistan, both claiming the entire region but only partially ruling.
Officials from the Indian research and analysis wing, the external espionage agency and Pakistani intelligence between services, traveled to Dubai for a meeting facilitated by the United Arab Emirates government, two people said.
The Indian Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Pakistan’s army, which controls the ISI, also did not respond.
But Ayesha Siddiqa, a top Pakistani defense analyst, said she believes Indian and Pakistani intelligence officials have been meeting in third countries for several months.
“I think there have been meetings in Thailand, in Dubai, in London between people at the highest level,” she said.
“IT’S GENDER”
Such meetings have also taken place in the past, especially in times of crisis, but have never been publicly acknowledged.
“There is a lot that can still go wrong, it’s loaded,” said one of the people in Delhi. “That’s why no one is talking about it in public. We do not even have a name for this, it is not a peace process. You could call it a re-involvement,” one of them said.
Both countries have reasons to approach. India has been locked in a border post with China since last year and does not want the army to be stretched to the Pakistani front.
Pakistan says China’s allies, caught up in economic problems and an IMF rescue program, could barely afford the tensions on the Kashmir border for a long time. It should also stabilize the Afghan border in the west as the United States withdraws.
“It’s better for India and Pakistan to speak than not to speak, and even better that it should be quiet than in a moment of publicity,” said Myra MacDonald, a former Reuters journalist, who recently book on India, Pakistan and war, said. on the borders of Kashmir.
‘… But I do not see it going much further than a basic management of tensions, possibly to tide both countries over a difficult period – Pakistan must address the fallout from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, while India a much more volatile situation on its controversial border with China. ‘
PROCESSING OF THE RHETORICS
Following the January meeting, India and Pakistan announced that they would stop shooting across the border along the Line of Control (LoC) dividing Kashmir, killing dozens of civilians and maiming numerous others. The ceasefire continues, military officials in both countries said.
Both sides have also indicated plans to hold elections on their sides of Kashmir this year as part of efforts to be normal in a region torn apart by decades of bloodshed.
The people Reuters spoke to also agreed to dismiss their rhetoric.
This would include Pakistan abandoning its loud objections to the abolition of Modi Kashmir’s autonomy in August 2019, while Delhi in turn refrained from blaming Pakistan for all violence on its side of the line of control.
These details have not been reported before. India has long blamed Pakistan for the uprising in Kashmir, a claim denied by Pakistan.
“There is a recognition that there will be attacks within Kashmir. Discussions have taken place on how to deal with it and not allow this attempt to be derailed by the next attack,” one of the people said.
However, there is still no big plan to resolve the 74-year-old dispute in Kashmir. Rather, all the people Reuters spoke to were trying to reduce tensions to pave the way for broad engagement.
“Pakistan is moving from a geo-strategic domain to a geo-economic domain,” Raoof Hasan, special assistant to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, told Reuters.
“Peace, within and around its neighbors, is an important ingredient in facilitating it.”
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