NYPD officials arrest a protester during a rally during the 2020 presidential election in New York.
Photographer: Stephanie Keith / Bloomberg
Photographer: Stephanie Keith / Bloomberg
With the world economy still in the throes of the Covid-19 crisis, the Eurasia group sees a divided US as a major risk to a world without leadership.
‘In recent decades, the world would be looking to the US to restore predictability in times of crisis. But the world’s leading superpower faces major challenges, ”said Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia, and Cliff Kupchan, President, in a report on the biggest risks for 2021.
Starting with the problems the Biden administration is experiencing in a divided US, the report identifies 10 geopolitical, climate and individual land risks that could derail the global economic recovery. An extensive Covid-19 impact and K-shaped recovery in both developed and emerging economies is the second largest risk factor mentioned in the report.
Biden will struggle to gain new confidence in the US global leadership as he struggles to manage domestic crises, the report said. With much of the U.S. questioning its legitimacy, the political effectiveness and longevity of its ‘star-studded presidency’, the future of the Republican Party, and the legitimacy of the American political model are all at stake.
” A superpower broken down in the middle cannot do business again as usual. And if the most powerful country is so divided, everyone has a problem, “Bremmer and Kupchan said.
The report cites the following as the biggest risks in 2021:
| Top risks 2021 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | US Presidency | 6. | Cyber conflict |
| 2. | Covid-19 extends until 2021 | 7. | Turkey |
| 3. | Implications of net emission targets | 8. | Cheap oil |
| 4. | Tensions between US and China | 9. | Europe and Merkel |
| 5. | Global data management | 10. | Latin America |
The report warns that the pandemic and its broad impact will not go away once the vaccine is widely distributed. Uneven recovery, deviation in access to vaccines and short-term stimulus plans will raise debt levels, leave workers displaced and incite opposition to current leaders.
For the US, it will increase the polarization that has fueled support for Donald Trump. For emerging economies, the debt crisis could lead to financial problems, the report said.
Some concerns are likely the risks of ‘red herring’ being overestimated, the report adds. These include the relations between Biden and ‘Trump’s fellow travelers’ such as the Turk, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Brazilian Jair Bolsonaro, the Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom and the Binyamin Netanyahu of Israel. The Biden administration will share in shared interests and leaders will adapt to the new status quo, the report said.
Fear of a global setback against US technology and a confrontation between Iran and America is also seen as a lower risk.