China’s exports rose at a slower pace than expected in March, even though global demand remained strong, while imports rose due to rising commodity prices.
Exports climbed 30.6% in dollars in March from a year earlier, customs data showed Tuesday, below the 38% median forecast in a Bloomberg survey among economists. Imports rose 38.1%, leaving a trade surplus of $ 13.8 billion for the month, well below the expected $ 52 billion.
Imports hit
Exports are also coming back, but not as strongly
Source: General Administration of China
Although growth slowed in February from a record increase, data indicates that export momentum remained strong in March as vaccine deployment and a recovery in global growth spurred demand.
“Export performance remains a theme in China’s recovery,” said Peiqian Liu, an economist at Natwest Markets, in an interview with Bloomberg TV, adding that it was due to a combination of global recovery demand as well as China’s role in filling the global supply chain gaps. ”
Peiqian Liu, an economist at Natwest Markets, discusses what the latest figures say about the health of the world’s second largest economy and its prospects.
Markets: Asia. ”(Source: Bloomberg)
The figures are also distorted by the compared to early 2020, when the pandemic shut down much of the world’s second largest economy. Premier Li Keqiang told experts and businesses over the weekend look beyond the ‘base effect’ and use other data and methods to assess the economic situation.
The World Trade Organization has predicted that world trade will increase with 8% this year, the largest increase since 2010, after falling by 5.3% in 2020. Although no forecast is given for China’s foreign trade prospects, the Ministry of Trade has said it will pursue a stable development in foreign trade this year.
Xing Zhaopeng, a senior China strategist from Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Shanghai, said the increase in imports is due to higher volumes and prices of commodities.
“Looking ahead, rising commodity prices could increase import costs in the short term, the recovery in external demand could offset part of the impact,” he said.
Other details
- In yuan terms, exports rose 38.7% to 4.61 trillion yuan ($ 704 billion) in the first quarter, while imports rose 19.3% to 3.86 trillion yuan, leaving a surplus of 759.3 billion yuan.
- Exports to the US rose 53.3% in March from a year earlier, resulting in a trade surplus of $ 21.37 billion.
- For the breakdown of imports by country, click here.
– With help from James Mayger, Lin Zhu, Yinan Zhao and Yujing Liu
(Updates with comments from economists.)