The past few weeks in the United States have been the deadliest of the coronavirus pandemics, and residents in a majority of countries are at an extremely high risk of contracting the virus. At the same time, transmission across the country appears to be slowing, with the number of new average cases on January 29 being 40 percent lower than at the U.S. high three weeks earlier.
Other indicators reinforce the current downward trend in cases. Hospitalizations are significantly lower than the record highs in early January. The number of tests per day has also decreased, which may obscure the actual toll of the virus, but the positivity rate of the tests has also decreased, indicating that the delayed spread is real. The average daily mortality rate reported over the past seven days remains above 3,000, compared to less than 1,000 per day in September and October.
Hospitalizations
Improve.
100 000
October 1
January 29
-24%
New tests per day
With less testing, more cases are missed.
2 million
October 1
January 29
-11%
Positivity rate
Improvement.
10%
October 1
January 29
-5 pieces
pte.
Note: Tests are shown as averages of seven days. Positive test figures are calculated using cumulative figures from the last seven days and exclude the peaks from before the period shown. The positivity rate was higher in the spring, when the testing ability was extremely limited.·Source: The Covid Tracking Project.
The country’s peaks were extremely high: nearly 1 percent of the U.S. population tested positive for the virus in the two weeks to January 8th. The high starting point means that Covid-19 hospitalizations, even after the big drop, remain at the levels seen in early December when ICUs are already approaching capacity in a large part of the country. They are currently almost twice as high as previous peaks in spring and summer.
Experts believe that the decline could be a turning point in the outbreak after months of ever-higher cases. But new, more contagious variants threaten to increase progress, and may even send the rate to a new high if it takes off, especially if the national explosion of vaccines faces obstacles.
Variants discovered in the United Kingdom and South Africa have both been found in the United States. The manufacturers of vaccines have said that the drugs are less effective against the South African variant. Other variants are also emerging: researchers have discovered a California variant, and one from Brazil that has similarities to the South African variant appears for the first time in the United States.
The variants may have driven new outbreaks in the UK, Brazil and South Africa, and federal officials have warned that the faster-spreading British variant could become the dominant one in the United States by March. But at present it appears that their presence in the United States has not significantly undermined a general declining trend. Although distribution in most parts of the country remains dangerous, each state is seeing a decline in new cases. Hospitalizations are also across the country.