More transferable variants, rather than changes in behavior, are largely to blame
LIKE a villain with storybooks, the covid-19 pandemic has the habit of fighting back from the brink of defeat. Last summer, politicians quickly assumed the coronavirus had been crushed, only for a second wave to engulf most of Europe and North America in the fall. When vaccination programs were launched in December, new SARS-CoV-2 mutations emerged that could reduce the effectiveness of those vaccines. Today, a third wave of infections is sweeping through Europe, forcing many governments to set up another round of barriers. As of midnight on March 19, 21 million people in France will close a new Monday room, in addition to a nationwide evening clock that has been in effect since January 16. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that her country is likely to use an ’emergency brake’ and impose a lock-in.
The recent increase in global affairs is worrying. It fell by half between January 11 and February 20, but has since risen 30% from that low. Cases are currently the highest in Europe, especially in Eastern Europe. Both Estonia and the Czech Republic record more than 100 new cases per 100,000 people per day. In the EU as a whole, the rate is 31 per 100,000, not far below the mid-January peak. Hospitals’ beds in the places worst affected are full. Cases are also rising in Latin America, where it has been up a third since February.
There are at least two possible explanations for this latest wave. First, because vaccines have been rolled out and the number of cases has dropped in many places, people may have let their hats down. Longer days in the northern hemisphere can also encourage people to hang out. Yet Google’s mobility data in the EU and Latin America show that the footfall in shops and public transport – just the kind of places where the SARS-CoV-2 is likely to spread – remains at the average level for the period since October 2020.
The second cause may be the spread of new, more contagious variants. The one first found in Kent, England, known as B.1.1.7, is thought to be about 30% more transmissible and could be more deadly. Since its genome was sequenced on September 20, it has been 55% of all cases in Britain. Border control in Europe could not stop its spread. It was detected in the Czech Republic in January and has since accounted for 80% of cases in the country. In France, 60% of successive cases since February were this variant. Perhaps more worrying is B.1.351 – first found in South Africa – which has been shown to be better able to avoid antibodies generated by vaccines. Since February, it has accounted for 5% of cases in France and 8% in Belgium.
Countries that have succeeded in exporting vaccines quickly have for the time being avoided increases in new cases. According to the latest vaccination figures collected by Our World in Data, a website, 15 countries have so far stabbed more than a quarter of their adult population. None of them show signs of a revival of infections. (see graph). In Britain, almost half of adults had at least one dose of coronavirus vaccine. In America, two-thirds of those older than 64 people got a jerk. Last week, President Joe Biden announced that by May 1, his 100th day in office, all adults will be eligible for a first dose. That means increasing your vaccinations from 2.5 million to at least 4 million people a day. On March 18, the White House announced that the United States would send 2.5 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine (US approval pending completion of a US trial) to Mexico and a further 1.5 million doses to Canada. . Small beer compared to the doses of 1.2 billion vaccines, of all kinds, expects it to be delivered this year.
In the European Union, the vaccination campaign has faltered. Only 11% of the adult population had one or more jabs; the attempt was not helped by confusion over the AstraZeneca vaccine. Since France at one point claimed it was “almost ineffective” for older people, he changed his mind. Last week, the use of the vaccine was stopped in a large part of the EU due to concerns that it could cause rare blood clots in some people; they resumed after the European Medicines Agency declared on 18 March that its benefits outweigh the potential risks. The EU hopes to offer 70% of adults vaccinations by the “end of summer” (ie by 21 September). To do this, members need to double their current vaccination rate to about 2 million people a day.