For the first time in more than 60 years, Cuba is ready to have a government without a single Castro.
Raúl Castro, who succeeded his brother Fidel as the Communist Party of Cuba’s first secretary in 2011, is expected to step down when the country begins its eighth Communist Party congress on Friday.
“We all expect the older generation to step down from all its functions within the party, including Raúl as first secretary,” said Ricardo Torres Pérez, a professor of economics at the University of Havana.
“That in itself is important. It’s the end of an era.”
But while an end to the Castro government is historic, few are convinced that the leadership move will lead to a comprehensive change for the country on the island or its relationship with the US.
Castro is expected to leave party leadership in the hands of President Miguel Díaz-Canel, while the rest of the politburo will not be filled with the younger generation most eager for change, but the middle-aged party leaders born following the revolution.
“This is not a dynastic transition – the new leadership, although shaped by the Castro brothers and their legacy, is the next generation of the Cuban Communist Party, not the next generation of the Castro family,” said Geoff Thale , president of the Washington office on Latin America.
‘The generational change is pretty smooth; there are not going to be big opinions or political conflict at the congress. ”
The shift in leadership comes as Cuba struggled to implement many of the economic reforms agreed upon by the 2011 party congress. The COVID-19 pandemic over the past year has also shattered an economy that is heavily dependent on tourism.
Fulton Armstrong, a former director of inter-American affairs at the National Security Council who worked on Cuba’s affairs in the State Department, White House and Senate, said Díaz-Canel’s ability to implement more reforms depends on whether other old guard party members also retire.
He pointed to José Ramón Machado Ventura and Ramiro Valdés Menéndez, both now in their 80s, who held a number of positions in the leadership of the Communist Party.
“The question is not whether the politburo is going to be Castro-less,” Armstrong said. “The question is whether they will also leave the politburo. Those guys are known as hardliners, but they are also just hardcore. ”
The government continues with the most drastic economic reforms since the early 1990s, when Cuba fell into severe recession following the fall of the Soviet Union.
The relatively young 60-year-old Díaz-Canel considered the reforms, which include the establishment of a single currency for locals and foreigners, as important for economic growth.
“Anything that stimulates production, eliminates barriers and benefits the producer is beneficial,” Díaz-Canel told Reuters recently about the impact of the reforms on agriculture.
But that relatively liberal position could resist if the old guard cemented its power in Congress.
“If they do stay, I would say it’s bad news for Díaz-Canel,” Torres Pérez said. “Because he will still have to sell his proposals to people like them who are not in favor of radical reforms.”
The tension, according to Armstrong, is that Díaz-Canel’s generation understands that the party is seeing a decline in the number of people who want to join its ranks.
‘The number of people entering as aspirants who want to become militants is lower. The young people want to be part of something exciting versus precise sphincter-like control over people’s lives, ”he said.
“The generation of Díaz-Canel, the generation that is 60 years old, the ‘young people’, they know it. They know they need to improve their vision to capture your 30s and 40s and get them moving. ”
Any slow reform in Cuba is likely to be linked to a Biden government that is not eager to enter into a change in relations between Cuba and the US.
Biden loses Florida easily with President Trump
Donald TrumpBiden administration seizes still near the border, despite plans to strike the wall: Illinois House report passes bill that would give Asian-American history lessons in schools. Overnight defense: government says ‘low to moderate confidence’ Russia behind Afghanistan’s bounties | Russia’s Low to Medium Risk ‘Invades Ukraine Within Next Week | Intelligence leaders face sharp questions during global House threat in the 2020 election, and Florida has been a loser for Biden’s party in nationwide elections over the past few years.
Sen. Bill Nelson
Clarence (Bill) William Nelson Why does Rep. Johnson against NASA’s commercial landing system? Trump hands over Rubio’s coveted Florida re-election Overnight Defense: Top House Armed Services Republican Speaks National Guard at Capitol, Afghanistan, More | Pentagon chief visits Afghanistan amid Saudi administration review suggests Yemen stop more (D-Fla.) Loses his bid for re-election in 2018, two years later Hillary Clinton
Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton Chelsea Clinton: Photos of Trump being vaccinated will help him ‘claim credit’. Why does Bernie Sanders want to destroy Elon’s dreams? Republican lawmakers target MORE election grants in the private sector losing the state to Trump.
This is after the Obama-Biden ticket won Florida in 2008 and 2012.
Obama’s approach to Cuba is partly designed to win over the younger generation of Cuban voters in South Florida. And it showed some signs of success in 2018, when the party overturned two rival seats in South Florida.
But Trump’s strong stance on Cuba – a rejection of Obama’s openness to the island’s communist regime – contributed to the return of Republicans to Florida in 2020, as Trump defeated Biden by more than three percentage points and the GOP defeated the recovered two seats from the House.
The political calculation, combined with virtually no democratization after the approach on the island, left the Biden government with very little desire to carry out Obama’s reforms again.
‘Joe Biden
Joe Biden Biden’s government still seizes land near the border despite plans to build wall: reports Olympic Games, climate on the agenda for Biden’s meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Boehner on Afghanistan: ‘It’s time for troops to pull out ‘MORE is not Barack Obama
Barack Hussein ObamaBiden can make history on reducing nuclear weapons. Biden has a nearly 90-point approval gap between Democrats, Republicans: poll The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Tax March – CDC in limbo over J & J wax’s ruling; Rep. Brady retires MORE on Cuba policy, ”Juan Gonzalez, senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council, recently told CNN and Español.
Díaz-Canel’s own political considerations limit his range of actions, even though he showed a preference for continuity in his time to share power with Castro.
Realistically, the change will remain evolutionary. “There will be change that will be significant over time, but it will not be dramatic and for the American right wing it will not be gratifying,” Armstrong said.
“But many people believe that what Cuba needs is gradual change, not explosion or explosion,” he added.