Dr Ashish K Jha (pictured), dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, issued a warning about the new ‘super-covid’ variant
A top public health expert says the new ‘super-covid’ variant could make the coronavirus pandemic up to five times more deadly.
The new strain, known as B.1.1.7 – first detected in the UK – has now infected at least 37 people in seven states and at least 30 countries.
Meanwhile, a close cousin has been found in South Africa, the United Kingdom and at least seven other countries – but not yet in the US
It is feared to be up to 70 percent more communicable and easier to distribute among children.
Dr Ashish K Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, says because the new variant is ‘significantly more contagious’, there could be up to 10 million new infections in the US and up to 150,000 deaths from now until the end of February.
Therefore, he argues that the US should also delay the administration of second doses of the coronavirus vaccine and rather give as many Americans as possible initial shots.
In a news release, Jha writes that a significant increase in COVID-19 infection rates will cause a much more deadly pandemic, despite the fact that the new variant does not make patients sicker.
He refers to an epidemiologist from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who found a strain that was 50 percent more contagious with one that was 50 percent more deadly in a Twitter thread.
The B.1.1.7 strain first detected in the UK has now infected at least 37 people in seven states (above), while the strain found in South Africa has not yet reached the US
Jha warns that the pandemic could become ‘five times more deadly’ because the new variants will infect more people faster and overwhelm hospitals. Pictured: Walter Smith, a respiratory therapist, gives oxygen to a COVID-19 patient before intubating him on December 16 in the ICU at Uniontown Hospital, in Uniontown, Pennsylvania.
He recommends that officials delay the administration of second-dose coronavirus vaccine so that as many people as possible receive at least one dose. Pictured: a bottle of Modern COVID-19 vaccine on a table before use in Topeka, Kansas, December 30
The epidemiologist found that the 50 percent more deadly strain in a city of 10,000 infections after a month of spread would lead to about 193 new deaths.
However, the 50 percent more transmissible variant will lead to 978 new deaths after one month, which equates to a fivefold increase.
“Because a lower mortality rate from a very large number of cases yields far more deaths than a higher mortality rate, but a lower number of cases,” Jha explained in the news release.
‘It is estimated that the new tribe represents approx. [one percent] of all infections at this time, but due to the increased infectivity, the best estimate is that by March it will be a majority of all new infections. ‘
Jha says urgent aggressive action is needed to limit the spread of the new strain as several health care systems have a severe shortage of beds and resources.
‘This new, more contagious variant will change the underlying dynamics of the pandemic, with exponential growth in infections making it much more difficult for the virus to limit and overburden our stressed healthcare system.
“The US health care system is already suffering from the burden of the pandemic that is causing the current (old) tension,” he wrote.
Some proposals include tightening restrictions on indoor gatherings and using a large number of rapid tests to schools, offices and homes.
‘We can expect, without further action, that following the new strain will see an additional 10 million infections in the US between now and the end of February and that during that time we can easily see an additional 100,000 to 150,000 deaths , ‘he wrote.
But, perhaps most importantly, Jha says the Trump administration needs to step up vaccination efforts nationwide.
The government’s current policy is to withhold about half of the available stock to ensure people get a second dose.
However, Jha says that officials should prioritize to ensure that as many Americans as possible receive at least one dose – especially senior citizens – and then second doses can be handed out when more vaccines come off the production line.
There is currently no evidence to suggest that the vaccines do not work against the new variant, and a single shot has been found to be at least 50 percent effective in preventing COVID-19 infection.
The UK has already opted for this, delaying the second doses of both the Pfizer and Oxford University / AstraZeneca sticks so that a larger group of people can get their first shots.
Between less vaccinated vaccines approved by the new year, which increase the infection rates and the threat of the new variant, Jha urges immediate action.
“It is imperative that we move this variant forward as it takes hold across the US,” he wrote.
“If we act aggressively now, we can avoid the worst-case scenario of more suffering, more deaths and more economic damage awaiting us in the coming months.”