Covid lockdown: Seven lasting claims that are actually checked

By Jack Goodman and Flora Carmichael
BBC Reality Check

image copyrightGetty Images
image captionRecent protests against the closure have drawn people to freedom and others who reject vaccinations

Opposition to the British exclusion has led to street protests and campaigns on social media.

Many of the grievances expressed are fueled by false and misleading allegations.

We have examined seven of the most common examples.

Claim: “Here we are a year later – the world closed for a 99.97% survival rate”

Pronunciation: This figure and similar figures commonly shared are incorrect.

This may not seem like a big difference, but it does mean that about 70 out of 10,000 people are expected to die – not three out of 10,000.

The death rate is much higher for older and more vulnerable people.

And many people in all age groups suffer from the virus in the long run.

image copyrightPA Media

Claim: Suicide increased by 200% during lockdown

Staying at home and the economic impact of the pandemic have undoubtedly taken a toll on the mental health of people.

However, shared reports that suicides increased by 200% during the pandemic are false.

Demand: Hundreds die every day from respiratory diseases … “why are we locked up?”

Pronunciation: Influenza, a serious respiratory virus can be fatal – but there are vaccinations and treatments available. Vaccines for Covid-19 have only recently been launched, and now more effective treatments are available.

The long-term effects of Covid can also be much worse for many people and are more contagious than flu.

Covid is also more lethal, says Prof Andrew Pekosz, faculty director at Johns Hopkins University in the United States.

“Covid-19 has a higher morbidity and mortality rate than influenza in all age groups, except perhaps children under the age of 12.”

image captionTweets like this quote a lot of selective data for flu and Covid, and question the need for barriers

Claim: “Covid-19 death toll was falsely inflated”

Pronunciation: More than 125,000 Covid deaths have been recorded so far in the UK.

There are different ways to record these deaths, but everyone broadly agrees on the extent of the crisis.

About 90% of the deaths where Covid appeared on the death certificate, according to the ONS, were attributed to the virus as the underlying cause by a doctor.

The ONS total is in line with the score of Public Health England, which looks at everyone who died within a positive test within 28 days, as well as the number of excess deaths, measured at an average of five years.

According to the three national statistical agencies of the United Kingdom, it is almost attributed to coronavirus.

image copyrightGetty Images
image captionBars and restaurants remained open during the early part of the pandemic in Sweden

Claim: “Sweden that is not excluded did better than the United Kingdom”

Pronunciation: It is true that Sweden had a lower mortality rate than the United Kingdom, but that it fared significantly worse than its neighbors, all of which had stricter initial restrictions on closure.

Many people opposed to Covid’s restrictions point to the example of Sweden, a country that did not have to impose compulsory lock-up at the start of the pandemic, and instead gave voluntary advice.

However, Sweden is a very different country from the United Kingdom and has features that may have helped it during the pandemic.

Compared to other Scandinavian countries with similar population profiles, Sweden fared much worse and recorded a significantly higher number of deaths than its neighbors, which had stricter restrictions during most of the pandemic.

Covid-19 deaths in Scandinavia.  Per 100,000 inhabitants.  The graph shows deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.  Sweden has by far the largest number with 127 per 100,000.  Norway has 11 per 100,000, Finland 14 and Denmark 41. Based on the total recorded deaths from Covid-19 to 14 March 2021.

It is difficult to separate all the factors that could have caused it, but the absence of strict closure measures would probably have contributed to that.

There is also no evidence that Sweden’s economy performed better than its neighbors.

Scandinavian economies during the pandemic.  GDP growth over time (% change).  .

Although Sweden has chosen not to end early in the pandemic, with pubs, restaurants and shops remaining open, increasingly legally binding restrictions have been imposed over the past five months.

These include a ban on public gatherings of eight or more people, restrictions on the number of shops, gyms and on bookable public transport and stop serving food and drink after 8pm.

The deaths reported daily have been declining since early January, but the infection rate remains high.

Claim: “All winter there was no pressure on the NHS”

Pronunciation: The hospitals were very busy, especially during the winter months, but the NHS was able to do so, mainly due to restructuring and lock-in restrictions.

The stress on critical care beds was acute, along with the required specialist staff.

Some non-Covid-related treatments have been temporarily suspended and wards have been restructured to ensure that the virus does not spread, which necessarily means fewer beds are available.

image copyrightGetty Images

In some hospitals, the total occupancy rate may have been lower than expected, but a major effort has been made to ensure sufficient spare capacity to cope with increases in coronavirus cases.

Coronavirus has also had a huge impact on staff, with a large number of people being ill or isolating themselves.

Claim: “If you do it well with PCR, you can find almost anything in anyone”

The PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test is considered the most reliable way to detect coronavirus.

The process was invented in the 1990s, long before Covid appeared, by California scientist Kary Mullis. At a public event, he once said, “If you do it well with PCR, you can find almost anything in anyone.”

It has since been used to discredit PCR tests for Covid, but this criticism is unfounded.

Mr. Mullis referred to the high sensitivity of his test.

PCR testing can pick up a little bit of virus, so it is possible for someone to get a positive result if they go to test days or weeks after an infection and are no longer contagious.

However, it is unlikely to have a significant effect on the number of cases, and people tend to do a test if they have symptoms.

Source