COVID-19 vaccinations could be open to all Oregon adults by summer, health officials say

Oregon will be able to open vaccinations for all adults by mid-summer, health officials said Friday.

The Oregon health authority expects a sharp increase in the state’s vaccine supply from next week, based on communications with providers and the federal government. If Oregon receives as many vaccines as advertised, the state will have enough first doses for 3.5 million people by the end of May.

Oregon will consider its vaccination timeline as follows:

• Not later than March 29, 2021: adults between the ages of 45 and 64 with underlying health conditions, migrant workers, seafood and agricultural workers, food processors, low-income people and community parental homes, homeless people, people displaced by wildfires, and firefighters in the field.
• Not later than 1 May 2021: adults between 16 and 44 with underlying health conditions, people in multigenerational housing, other frontline workers as defined by the CDC. Frontline workers include grocery and food service workers, U.S. postal workers, transit workers, local and state workers, and journalists.
• Not later than 1 June 2021: all adults between 45 and 64 years.
• Not later than 1 July 2021: all Oregonians aged 16 and over.

Oregon Health Authority chief financial officer David Baden said Oregon will soon need to receive more than 200,000 doses a week. The state would reach a point where the vaccine supply would soon exceed demand.

“We will look for people to vaccinate more than people are looking for vaccine,” Baden said.

The health authority’s predictions assume that manufacturers Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson will all reach their production timelines and that the expected doses will be delivered on time, which was not always the case.

It was unclear early Friday how many of Oregon’s projected vaccine doses would come from each provider. The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines have an efficacy of approximately 95%, but require two doses and ultra-cold storage. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has a lower efficacy rate but is also easier to store.

Increased supply is also not immediately equal to shots. The administration of all the additional doses of vaccination will require clinics and pharmacies in Oregon to expand their capacity. The Oregon Health Authority estimates that the state’s mass vaccination sites can administer approximately 200% more doses than they currently have.

“The biggest constraint is supply,” Baden said. “And as supply increases, we feel pretty confident that these channels can increase and that we will be ready when more doses come to get it in our arms.”

At a rate of 16,000 doses administered daily, Oregon can reach herd immunity by the end of the calendar year. This is when COVID-19 will not spread as easily and that certain social constraints are likely to weaken.

This rate will theoretically accelerate with more available vaccines and a greater ability to distribute them.

The director of the Oregon Health Authority, Rachael Banks, said the state’s timeline ‘really focuses on enabling our resources to target those with the greatest COVID burden.’

The health authority last week reported racial differences in the distribution of vaccines. People who identify themselves as Latino or Hispanic, for example, accounted for only 5% of total vaccinations, despite the fact that more than a quarter of the confirmed case load exists in Oregon. White people, on the other hand, received nearly 75% of the vaccinations; it accounts for less than half of Oregon’s business.

Oregon has reported more than 154,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 since late Thursday. At least 2,206 Oregonians have died from the disease.