COVID-19 pandemic raises unemployment rates

COVID-19 pandemic raises unemployment rates

by
Madeleine Ngo

| USA TODAY

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The claim: Several states with Democratic governors have higher unemployment rates than states with Republican governors

The unemployment rate is being closely watched as the US economy slowly recovers from pandemic-induced job losses.

One viral message on social media claims that some states have the highest unemployment rate because they are run by democratic governors.

The post lists Hawaii, Nevada, California, Colorado and New York as the states with the highest unemployment rates, ranging from 9.3% to 8.2%.

The states with the lowest unemployment rates are reportedly Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Vermont and Utah, ranging from 3% to 3.6%. The report points out that these states all have Republican governors.

The post has been shared 1,700 times. USA TODAY directed the user for comment.

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Pandemic numbers are not a fair comparison

The post correctly indicates the political affiliation of governors for those ten states. And those numbers are accurate numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for December.

However, economists say the post is unrelated.

“The numbers are correct, but it has nothing to do with Democratic versus Republican governors,” Sang-Hyop Lee, an economics professor at the University of Hawaii in Manoa, told the U.S. in an email TODAY.

Lee compares to comparing unemployment rates during the pandemic. Hawaii’s unemployment rate was one of the lowest in the U.S., at 2.7% in December 2019. Nevada had an unemployment rate of 3.7%, and Colorado had an unemployment rate of 2.5%, according to the BLS.

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By comparison, Nebraska’s unemployment rate was 3% in December 2019. South Dakota’s unemployment rate was 3.4% – higher than Hawaii’s, but lower than Nevada’s.

The economy of each state has a different basis

The state economy also fluctuates, making it difficult to make comparisons.

Hawaii, for example, has a robust tourist economy that has suffered because fewer people travel during the pandemic. Visitors’ arrivals to the islands in July 2020 dropped by almost 98% compared to the same month in 2019, reports Associated Press.

“Due to the huge economic dependence on tourism, Hawaii’s unemployment will boom in 2020,” Lee said.

Other states, such as Nebraska, rely less on tourism and are also unaffected by reduced travel, said Christopher Mann, a professor of economics at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

“Not as many people come to Nebraska as New York, for example,” Mann said.

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Our rating: Missing context

The claim that several states with democratic governors have higher unemployment rates than states with Republican governors, MIS CONTEXT, based on our research. The unemployment rates were significantly affected by the pandemic, which is related to the economy of each state, rather than the politics of leadership.

Our fact-checking sources:

  • The Wall Street Journal, February 5, “U.S. Employers Added 49,000 Jobs in January”
  • US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Unemployment Rates for States”
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “State unemployment rates over the past ten years, seasonally adjusted”
  • Email from Sang-Hyop Lee, Professor of Economics at the University of Hawaii, February 4
  • The Associated Press, August 28, 2020, “Hawaii visitors drop by almost 98% in July as coronavirus pandemic reduces tourism”
  • Interview with Christopher Mann, Professor of Economics at the University of Nebraska, February 4

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Our fact-checking work is supported in part by an award from Facebook.

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