Daily deaths in the U.S. Covid-19 eventually appear to be declining from the highest levels of all time, resulting in improved data on cases and hospitalizations, resulting in cautious optimism from public health officials and medical professions.
Deaths in the country peaked in mid-January, when the average of seven days of reported deaths was about 3,300 a day, compared to 1,100 deaths reported two days a day earlier, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins. University.
Although daily deaths still remain near overall highs and are above the highest figures during earlier rises, the average number of deaths over the past few days has generally fallen. On February 1, the seven-day average of daily deaths was 3,172. According to the Journal analysis of the latest data from Johns Hopkins, the number dropped to 2,765. On Thursday, there was a slight rise to 2,781, apparently influenced by Ohio adding a backlog of Covid-19 deaths.
According to health researchers, the number of excess deaths linked to the pandemic significantly exceeded the reported deaths due to Covid-19. Ohio officials said Wednesday that the state had underreported as many as 4,000 deaths of Covid-19 due to “process issues,” while a year-end audit in Indiana revealed 1,507 additional deaths.
The recent decline in deaths in Covid-19 reinforces a trend of hopeful signs following a brutal winter surge, with cases and hospitalizations declining first. Mortality is a backward indicator, and it can take several weeks before people admitted to serious hospitals succumb to the disease, said William Janssen, a pulmonologist and head of the critical care team at National Jewish Health in Denver, said.
“Patients who die from Covid usually do not die on the day they are admitted to the hospital,” said Dr. Janssen said.
The seven-day average of newly reported U.S. coronavirus cases, which help ease irregularities in data reporting, dropped to 101,757 on Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins data, the lowest point in three months. Hospitalizations also dropped to their lowest level in about three months, relieving pressure on intensive care units, with 15,190 Covid-19 patients required in ICUs.
The latest federal data on nursing homes – up to 31 January – show that it appears to be six consecutive weeks with declining deaths of new residents linked to these facilities, with the rate of declines increasing over the past few weeks. The latest count of 2,872 Covid-19 deaths in the week ended January 31 is about half the weekly level seen at the end of December.
The latest figure is likely to be revised upwards in future reports, based on recent trends, but not enough to break the trend of smaller weekly mortality rates. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services announce a new week each Thursday with nursing home data.
As long-term care facilities consistently accounted for more than a third of all U.S. deaths, the pressure to vaccinate these facilities and curb a pandemic problem of fatal outbreaks could also cause a marked decrease in overall U.S. deaths. Nearly 4 million people in long-term care, including residents and staff, received one or more doses of vaccinations, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
‘I do think we are seeing real signs of improvement in terms of Covid death care in the nursing home, and given the high proportion of deaths due to long-term care institutions, I believe we will see a further decrease in overall deaths in the coming days. see. David Grabowski, a professor at Harvard Medical School, said in an email.
Dr. Janssen also said he expects deaths to decline in the short term, although he is concerned about possible outbreaks driven by new, more contagious variants of the virus. He said he was also concerned that fatigue over social distance and wearing masks could also increase coronavirus infections and eventually deaths.
“Vaccinations will help prevent infections and deaths,” he said, “but we still have a long way to go on this front.”
California, the most populous state, recently surpassed New York as the state with the most deaths in Covid-19, with more than 45,000 deaths reported. Nevertheless, California, which is only just recovering from a prolonged and deadly boom, has fewer deaths per 100,000 people than New York, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The daily death toll in California remains high, with the average of 14 days showing 464 deaths from Wednesday, up from a peak of 542 on February 1, according to the California Department of Public Health.