With the advent of spring and after an exhausting year of COVID-19 restrictions, Americans are eager to return to a degree of normalcy.
However, many health experts urge patience and warn that a possible fourth surge could be on the horizon, with more than a dozen states showing early signs of increasing case numbers.
Dr Anthony Fauci, the country’s leading expert on infectious diseases, sounded the alarm this week and expressed his concern that we could reopen faster than we should.
“There were times when we thought things were getting out of hand, and then it exploded again,” Fauci said. “Although we are going in the right direction, we need to keep our foot on the pedal when it comes to public health measures.”
Over the past week, more than a dozen states have seen increases in their daily averages. Parts of the upper-Midwestern world have shown particular trends, including in Michigan, where cases have increased since the end of February.
Experts and officials fear that a combination of weakening restrictions and proliferation of the British variant could cause the rise in Michigan – a potentially worrying sign for other areas as mass vaccination begins.
‘Real Coming’ in Michigan
The Great Lake State currently has the country’s fourth highest average of new COVID-19 cases per capita, with New Jersey the country. Over the past three weeks, the daily average has doubled. In the last week alone, the state average has risen by 53%.
According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the seven days now average more than 2,500 new cases per day, and on Wednesday Michigan reported a total of 3,164 new cases, the highest one-day case since early January.
By comparison, California, with about four times the population of Michigan, recorded only 415 more cases this week than Michigan.
‘Despite declining trends over several months, we are still at high levels of community transfer and with [the U.K.] ‘a variant that is known to be more communicable, there is a serious concern that you could quickly find yourself in a situation of exponential growth in cases that threaten to overwhelm healthcare systems again,’ ‘Josh Petrie, a research assistant to the Department of Epidemiology at the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health.
Michigan has seen a steady increase in hospitalizations since the end of February and currently 1,000 people are hospitalized, Dr. Sarah Lyon-Callo, director of the MDHHS Bureau of Epidemiology and Population Health, told a news conference on Wednesday. increase of 45% since 25 February.
In contrast, the seven-day average hospitalization this week is nationally 8.4% lower and according to CDC data 73% of the peak in January.
Over the past week, hospital admissions in Michigan have increased by 24%, according to the CDC, and the PolicyLab at Philadelphia Children’s Hospital reports that the emergency department’s visits and hospitalizations in Michigan are increasing.
Wayne and Genesee counties (home of Detroit and Flint) and Macomb County have viral reproduction numbers in excess of 1.3, indicating a ‘significant transmission’, and the organization’s models project a possible doubling in the event that the next 3-4 weeks would occur in these provinces.
Although the number of deaths in the state is still declining, Lyon-Callo has warned that deaths are a backlog. Therefore, the number of COVID-related deaths should increase in the next few weeks.
Rise of the British variant
According to the CDC, Michigan is currently second in the country for the most reported cases of the B.1.1.7 variant first discovered in the UK, with more than 725 confirmed cases in 31 provinces.
“This variant is very transferable,” said dr. Nigel Paneth, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics and pediatrics at Michigan State University, told ABC News. “It may be a little more likely to cause serious illness, but it appears to be preventable by current vaccines.”
The variant is found in the more densely populated areas of the state, with more than half of the B.1.1.7 variants identified as a result of an outbreak in the Michigan Department of Corrections, according to the Department of Health.
In addition to the B.1.1.7 variant that drives increased transmission, there is a confluence of factors that can drive the rising benchmarks, said dr. Tara Smith, professor of epidemiology at Kent State University College of Public Health, told ABC News. begins with the weakening of restrictions on dining, entertainment venues and other businesses, by Government Secretary Gretchen Whitmer over the past few weeks.
“I believe we are also seeing COVID fatigue, coupled with, in our condition, some relaxation of public health guidelines,” Paneth said. ‘There is clearly an unfortunate trend that the general public is relaxing the distance measures and that the authorities are relaxing restrictions on the health of the public. This is a real concern in light of the continuing evolution of new strains of the COVID virus. ”
Furthermore, with more children returning to school and participating in sports programs, school-related COVID-19 cases are increasing according to state data.
“The largest number of outbreaks is in K-12 school environment at 162, with 54 new outbreaks reported this week,” Callo-Lyon said. Children aged 10 to 19 now have the highest COVID-19 fall in Michigan, a rate that “is increasing faster than that of other age groups.”
Nationally, however, new pediatric cases have declined for the eighth consecutive week, according to a weekly report from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association.
However, these new issues are related to extracurricular activities such as sports, and not in a classroom. As a result, Michigan will begin mandating testing among high school student athletes.
‘The classroom environment itself was not a strong signal for outbreaks. These are mostly more activities related to schools, and include sports, but not just sports, ”Callo-Lyon added.
“Gritting our teeth”
The outbreaks come as the state prepares for the opening of its largest mass vaccination center at Ford Field in Detroit, which officially opens on March 24.
“It’s time we gritted our teeth and kept doing the work we had to do until the last second of this event played out. If we want to be normal again … we all need to be vaccinated, our loved one encourages children and friends and co-workers and neighbors to do so, ”Whitmer said Thursday.
According to government officials, the state has vaccinated at 90,000 people a day, but so far less than 25% of the state population has received at least the first dose of vaccinations.
The percentage is lower for cities like Detroit and drops to 15.1%. Earlier this month, the city of Detroit was criticized for deciding to abandon the Johnson & Johnson vaccine award.
Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan said the intention was “as long as possible” to “stick with the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines” as they were “the best”. However, the mayor’s office later withdrew its comments, saying the city was “excited” to have three highly effective vaccines offered to its residents.
Experts agree that the key to preventing a possible revival will be to not only vaccinate as many Americans as quickly as possible, but also to continue the proper mitigation efforts.
‘Getting as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible will be helpful in reducing the impact of a revival. My concern, however, is that it takes about a month and a half to get both doses and develop full immunity. Transmission happens much faster than that, ”Petrie said. “It is therefore important to continue with the masking, social distance and unnecessary contact with the community until we can fully vaccinate a much larger section of the population.”
“We all still need to be careful and realize that we are not out of the woods yet,” Smith concluded.