The numbers of new COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations are plunging into Los Angeles County, which is welcome news following a catastrophic winter wave that swept the region.
Officials, however, stress that the country is far from out of the woods. Although these figures have tumbled over the past few weeks, they remain well above their pre-boom levels – and are still too high for the country to unlock additional sectors of its battered economy or to provide the long-term aid that hospitals desperately need.
And the last, most devastating result of the pandemic – the number of people losing their battle with the disease – remains high.
About 201 Angelenos have died on average from COVID-19 in the past week.
LA’s coronavirus-related death toll is now above 17,300. Across the country, more than 42,000 Californians have died from the disease in the entire pandemic.
Christina Ghaly, director of health services in the province, said on Wednesday that it appears that daily deaths from COVID-19 have finally reached a peak.
The highest rate was recorded for the seven-day period that ended on January 14, when the province had an average of 241 deaths per day.
“Although it is still uncomfortably high, we expect the average daily mortality rate to fall in the coming weeks,” Ghaly said during a briefing.
Although the figure is moving in a promising direction, she said the persistent large number of deaths is’ sad – for the families across the country who have lost someone they love, for children who have lost their parents, for parents who have lost children, to people who have lost friends, colleagues, loved ones – that sadness is incredibly intense. And that loss still happens daily. ‘
Mortality is the ultimate indication of the range of COVID-19; it takes longer to rise when a new wave hits, and it is slower to fall, even when the rate of infection increases.
The pattern of the pandemic plays out because it can take weeks before people become infected to get sick to need professional hospital treatment, and weeks more before their condition worsens to the point that they need intensive care or die from the disease.
Officials and experts have repeatedly stressed that the only way to avoid this devastating domino effect is to limit coronavirus transmission.
LA County has seen tremendous, if qualified, improvement in this regard. The province is now averaging about 5,600 new cases of coronavirus per day – significantly less than the approximately 15,100 people seen during the seven-day period, which ended on January 13, but still much larger than in early October, when the country reported less than 1000 cases per day. .
The sharp drop in infections is beginning to be reflected in hospitals in the region, which have long been flooded with COVID-19 patients.
As of Tuesday, there were less than 5,000 people hospitalized with COVID-19 in LA County – the lowest number since mid-December, and lower than the peak of 8,098 on January 5th. But the number is still much higher than it was in early October, when there were fewer than 700 COVID-19 patients nationwide.
“While the numbers are lower and we are very pleased that the numbers are lower, many hospitals still have challenges for staff,” Ghaly said. “Many hospitals still have an ICU COVID census that is 100% or more of their normal ICU capacity. And it still puts a lot of strain on the general hospital and healthcare system. ”
The severity of illness in hospital patients also remains high, with an excessive demand for clinically intensive services such as ICU care and the need to connect to a mechanical ventilator or high-fluid oxygen.
‘Although new hospitalizations are declining, many of the individuals admitted weeks ago have experienced the progression of their disease and are now on the verge – they need ICU care and mechanical ventilation, even if not in the earlier stages of their disease, ”Ghaly said.
Although the country’s progress has been steady lately, officials warn that it could easily be reversed if too many people abandon the public health protocols implemented to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
The upcoming Super Bowl is of particular concern. Millions of Californians usually gather to watch the big game. They spend hours indoors with people they do not live with, rejoicing or triumphing in defeat.
This, according to officials, is a recipe for disaster, and could ultimately be a turning point if too many people misread recent progress as a sign that the danger of the pandemic is over.
“Super Bowl parties do have the power to derail our recovery,” Barbara Ferrer, director of public health in LA County, said Wednesday.
The province still has a number of restrictions related to coronavirus, including that private gatherings are limited to 15 people, from no more than three households, and that it should be kept out, with participants carrying points and keeping physical distance .
“If you do not want to see the TV screen outside, you should plan to spend this Sunday only with members of your household,” Ferrer said.
However, some decisions do not adhere to the public health mandates issued when restaurants were allowed to reopen their outdoor dining areas last week.
The Department of Public Health in LA said in a statement Tuesday that many of the areas do not follow instructions that employees dealing with the public should wear face masks, nor do they comply with the rules restricting how outdoor structures can be erected does not become.
Just as Angelenos’ joint work has played a crucial role in turning the tide, officials warn of the major failure to pay attention to public health education, the most important possible obstacle on the country’s path to wider recovery and reopening.
This is especially the case given the documented presence of new coronavirus mutations – including the third confirmed case of LA County from the more contagious B.1.1.7 strain first identified in Britain.
“We all need to be careful and very careful in our actions to avoid another upsurge, another storm coming over us,” Ghaly said. ” An increase in behavior that leads to more transmission of this virus in our community can very easily lead to the return of the hospitals in our hospitals, and an increase in the number of patients required in only two or three hospitalizations . weeks time. ”
Even without the more easily spread strains, Ferrer said Angelenos is already well aware of how quickly COVID-19 can rage out of control – and how seemingly benign activities can add to the viral wildfire.
“Let’s not take any chances,” she said. “There are countless stories … where one group of friends or several families gathered, and within a few weeks many people were infected, some were hospitalized and some died.”
Improving conditions in LA County reflect a rosier trend across the country as California emerges from the darkest days of the pandemic.
New daily case numbers are rapidly falling in the state. State officials announced Tuesday that 18 provinces – including San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin and Yolo – are seeing rates below 25 new daily cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents, allowing additional K-6 schools to reopen for in – person teaching.
Hospitalizations also passed, from a peak of nearly 22,000 in early January to 13,766 on Tuesday.
“Everything related to this virus is going on,” Gavin Newsom said Wednesday. “Everything that needs to be off is off.”