Colorado is experiencing a moment of deja vu as some of the mountain communities in the state have once again become a hotspot for the new coronavirus, despite the months-long decline in new infections across the country.
Provinces in the high country have repulsed a significant increase in hospitalizations, but public health officials say there are concerns that increasing infections in one region of the state could cause an increase in cases in another country – especially given the new , more contagious variants found in Colorado.
A group of counties in southwestern Colorado are seeing enough COVID-19 transmission that the region is approaching 1 in 30 people who are contagious, leading some local governments to impose targeted restrictions on indoor dining, lodging and gatherings.
“Colorado is an associated condition, which means that an outbreak in one region or a high level of infection in one region could spill over to another region,” Beth Carlton, an associate professor of environmental and occupational health, told the Colorado School of Public Health, said. . “We’ve seen it over and over again with the pandemic.”
It is reminiscent of the early days of the virus – the first confirmed cases were found in mountains after visitors from other states and countries tested positive for COVID-19 disease.
And somewhat similar to a year ago, when scarce testing meant the state did not know exactly how widespread the virus was, it is not yet known how widely the new variants spread. Variants have been confirmed in at least 20 counties, including San Miguel, Garfield, Gunnison, Routt, Delta and Summit.
“We approach it from the perspective that it’s likely to be here, but we just have not found it yet,” said Heath Harmon, director of Eagle County Public Health and Environment. A variant has not yet been confirmed in his country.
Public health officials said there are several factors that increase coronavirus infections in some areas of Colorado’s mountains, including winter weather, the influx of visitors to ski resorts and the fact that many vital workers live in dense housing.
“Worried that infections will increase”
Infections and hospitalizations of the new coronavirus are declining in most places in the state, but according to some researchers in Colorado, the path of the pandemic is following in some of the mountain communities of the state.
In two of the regions detected by the researchers, the Central Mountains and the West Central Partnership value R0, or ‘zero’, is probably higher than 1, according to the average number of people infected by one person. to the latest report from governments Jared Polis’ modeling team. This means that each person with the virus may transmit the disease to more people.
The Central Mountains region includes the provinces of Eagle, Garfield, Grand, Pitkin and Summit. The West Central region covers the provinces of Delta, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Mineral, Montrose, Ouray and San Miguel.
These communities are small, and therefore the estimate of viral transmission for the regions in the modeling report tends to vary frequently. And in some counties, such as Pitkin and Eagle, cases have declined since mid-January.
Public health officials are “not only concerned that the infections are increasing, but that the percentage of the population is high,” said Carlton, a member of the state modeling team. This means that contact with other people in these communities becomes more risky, she said.
Coronavirus cases are increasing the highest percentage in the West Central region, and it is estimated that 1 in 33 people is contagious. According to the February 16 report, an estimated 1 in 119 people are contagious.
By comparison, in the metro area of Denver, where infections are declining, about 1 in 172 people are contagious and the reproduction number in the region is below 1.
“The amount of tourism is a bit surprising”
Mountain communities are particularly vulnerable to the spread of the new coronavirus because they attract tourists from other parts of the state or elsewhere in the US who come to mingle with residents in the city.
“People come to the mountains to play in the winter,” said Mike Bordogna, spokesman for the San Miguel County Department of Health and Environment. “So we have this giant mixing bowl, and if you bring in people from all 50 countries and different countries … it’s a possible recipe for exposure to viruses.”
Skiing yourself is not a big spread of the new coronavirus, Carlton said, but the other activities that take place when people without masks get together indoors, such as going to restaurants and bars or driving together, can lead to transmission.
Mobility data show that ski resorts had about 60% fewer visitors this past holiday season and that most visitors came from other states, such as Texas and Florida, said Jude Bayham, a member of Colorado State University and a member of the University of Colorado, said. the COVID-19 modeling team from the School of Public Health.
“Still, the amount of tourism is a bit surprising,” Bayham said.
Jordan Sabella, interim director of public health, showed in Pitkin County that mobility data showed that visitors also spend more time in restaurants – a high-risk area for the transmission of the virus. for the province.
Health officials also found that when there is an increase in the number of mobile devices in the country, an increase in cases of coronavirus follows seven to ten days later, she said.
“The risk now is that tourists may introduce new variants, and that some may be more transferable,” Bayham said. “There are concerns that it will do a similar thing as last year with these variants.”
Growing populations, dense housing
More people have also moved to the mountain communities since the pandemic began. Bordogna, for example, said the province of San Miguel has a 20% increase in population.
“We know a lot of second home owners have moved to the mountains here,” Harmon told Eagle County Public Health. “This is in line with the theme that the pandemic is driving some migration of Americans to different communities.”
Housing costs are expensive in the mountain communities, so residents often live with one or more people. This is especially true for essential workers, who are more likely to perform multiple jobs, which could increase their exposure to the virus, Bordogna said.
At Winter Park Resort in Grand County, more than 100 employees tested positive for the new coronavirus. The outbreak, first reported on Jan. 23, is one of 19 current outbreaks linked to ski resorts, according to data from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment.
“The vast majority of cases were linked to social gatherings outside the workplace and shared housing,” said Winter Park spokeswoman Jen Miller.
Since the outbreak, the resort has required staff members living in employee housing to wear masks in common areas and this has been prohibited outside guests.
Grand County public health officials have also placed restaurants based at Winter Park Resort on the Red restrictions level, meaning they can no longer offer indoor meals. The restrictions also apply to at least two other businesses that have not been publicly identified.
Miller said none of the resort-run restaurants have served indoor meals since it opened in December. However, independent restaurants established in the resort have been affected by the new restrictions.
Health officials specifically targeted Winter Park and the city of Fraser rather than moving the entire province to higher restraints, as these are the areas with the highest prevalence, writes Grand County Public Health Director Abbie Baker in a letter from February 15 published by Sky-Hi. News.
“I want to see us move from the second highest transfer in the state to one of the lowest as soon as possible,” she wrote.
As of Friday, Grand County had a one-week infection rate of 419.9 infections per 100,000 people, according to the state Department of Health’s color-coded dial.
Go to “Level Orange Extreme”
San Miguel County public health officials have also implemented similar targeted restrictions after noticing the coronavirus was transmitted to the east of the country, which includes Telluride.
The new restrictions, called Level Orange Extreme, reduce housing to 50%, while events are limited to members of one household only. Restaurants and pubs can still offer indoor dining, but only customers from the same household can sit at the same table and wear masks unless people are actively eating or drinking.
According to the province’s data, San Miguel ended 538.3 infections per 100,000 people per week on February 14, although Bordogna noted that the infection rate in the country has improved in recent days.
By comparison, according to state data, Denver had a one-week prevalence rate of 88.70 infections per 100,000 people.
The main difference between Level Orange Extreme and Level Red restrictions is that if the province moved to the latter, restaurants and bars could close, Bordogna said.
He said the province is trying to avoid it, because when the restaurants closed in San Miguel County last year, health officials found that many employees traveled to visit their families or to go on vacation and then returned after possibly visiting the coronavirus was exposed.
“Red is not off the table either,” Bordogna said. “If our numbers start to trend in the wrong direction, we’ll review again.”
Meg Wingerter, a Denver Post reporter, contributed to this report.