The COVID-19 hospitalizations in Colorado took off Monday, but anyone watching will have to wait a few days to see if it’s a blip or if it’s a concern.
As of Monday afternoon, 369 people had been admitted to hospital with a confirmed or suspected COVID-19, compared to 324 on Sunday. Monday’s number was the highest total since March 3, but still less than a fifth of the number at its peak in early December.
Beth Carlton, an associate professor of occupational and environmental health at the Colorado School of Public Health, said Monday’s bump was a breeze, but it’s clear that cases and hospitalizations are not declining as fast as in December and early January. not. . Hospitalizations sometimes take the day after a storm because people who fail to seek care will go to the weather.
While the numbers now appear to be on a plateau, previous periods of flattening did not last long as the virus or attempts to control it prevailed, she said.
“Flat is a very unstable place to be,” she said.
This week’s numbers are difficult to interpret. The total drops with about 400 new infections compared to the previous week, with 6,332 cases reported. However, the tests decreased significantly, while the Department of Public Health and the Environment in Colorado tested about half as many people as at the same time a week earlier.
Test sites were closed along the Front Range due to heavy snow, and some remained closed Monday.
The percentage of tests returning positive increased slightly over the weekend, but it may also reflect fewer people being tested due to the winter storm. If the storm prevented some people from being tested, there could be an increase in cases or the positivity decreases as the Front Range digs out over the next few days.
Carlton said Colorado faces three challenges in limiting the virus: the spread of new variants; spring break, which can attract people from states with fewer restrictions to ski resorts; and general fatigue after a year of the pandemic. According to the School of Public Health’s modeling team, 20 to 25% of Coloradans may be immune from vaccination or prior infection, but it still leaves many people defenseless.
“We are definitely not out of the woods yet,” she said.
The state health department announced on Friday night that five additional inmates at the Buena Vista Correctional Complex tested positive for a virus variant first found in South Africa, bringing the total to eight cases. The immune system may find the B.1.351 variant more difficult to recognize, and thus vaccines are slightly less effective against it, and people who have had a different version of the virus may become infected again.
The state found 312 cases of ‘variants of concern’. Almost all were caused by B.1.1.7, a variant first found in the United Kingdom. This version is more contagious and can cause serious illness.
However, the provinces with the most new cases are not the countries where the variants appear to be spreading. B.1.1.7 mostly showed up along the Front Range, but Pitkin, Washington, Crowley and Minerals had the most new cases compared to the population.
The current status of the provinces is:
- Pitkin County: Shallow yellow on the state’s dial frame; cases it will qualify for Level Orange, and the percentage of tests that return positive is enough for Level Red
- Washington County: Level Blue; cases and positivity is in Level Orange
- Crowley County: Level Blue; cases are in Level Orange, but positivity is in Level Blue
- Mineral County: Level Blue; cases and positivity is in Level Red
Lake and Clear Creek counties – at yellow and shallow blue, respectively – also have a positive percentage that will place them in the higher level orange, although their number of cases remains low.
However, it is not clear whether one of the provinces will move on the knob. Last week, the state health department issued an order allowing provinces to exceed the cut-off points for their position on the slide by up to five% to five days before they can be forced to move to a more restricted level.
Washington County was the only one of the four in the 15% zones as of Monday, but counties previously had at least two weeks to reconnect before making changes.