The rate of COVID-19 deaths will drop sharply in the next four weeks, according to a new forecast showing that a cruel wave of cases is declining and that the US is moving forward with the distribution of vaccines.
The country is expected to have about 12,666 deaths in the week ending March 13, according to the COVID-19 Forecast Hub of the University of Massachusetts, which issued a four-week forecast on Tuesday. The forecast is based on independent models compiled in collaboration with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
According to Johns Hopkins University data, the toll is a 43% drop from the 22,062 deaths reported last week.
Although the number of cases has been declining for a month, deaths – a backlog indicator – have not fallen much from record levels, according to the Johns Hopkins data. That should start to change this week, and the numbers are likely to gradually improve over the four-week period. The pace will be the slowest since the period to 28 November.
(The tabular methods vary, and the general version of the COVID detection project shows that deaths are already declining to a greater extent.)
According to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker, only 4.5% of Americans received the required two doses. But Americans also use masks at near-record levels and move around less, according to surveys and mobility data compiled by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
In addition, the CDC estimates that approximately 83.1 million Americans may have already been infected, and many people have acquired a degree of natural immunity that appears to last at least five months.
After all, there are many reasons to be vigilant. The US is starting to see new variants of the virus spreading more easily, and many residents have been forced to congregate in homes and shelters to await a winter storm. What’s more, Americans tend to relax mitigation measures as soon as things start to decline in their communities.
The U.S. posted 53,410 new cases on Monday, bringing the seven-day average to 86,002, according to Johns Hopkins at least since November 3rd. There are almost 487,000 deaths overall, the data shows.
According to the shell project data:
- The number of people currently hospitalized with the virus has declined from a week earlier in North Dakota and Wyoming except.
- South Carolina has had the most cases per capita in the past week.
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